Italian Serie A
2025-10-18 - AS Roma vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Saturday, 18 October 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Roma Team News
Although the 1-2 visiting win against Fiorentina may cloud the judgement a bit, Roma is still a team that either wins 1-0 or loses 0-1. This has happened far too often in their matches in Serie A so far to be a coincidence.
Roma can't really score more than once, that's a fact. And they know it. So they try to keep the game tight, as if they concede a goal then they can only reach a point, rarely all three.
And, in those instances when the opponent scores first, Roma finds it very difficult to attack a well-grouped defence as they rely on one player, Dybala, to break the deadlock. That's not enough in modern football, hence the lack of scoring -- Roma managed to win five times by scoring seven goals. No other side is as efficient.
For comparison, Inter scored seventeen goals but only got four wins.
This game of slim margins will likely turn against Roma real soon.
Inter Team News
As Inter already gathered two defeats, a shocking one to Udinese 1-2, and the 4-3 against Juventus, they're lagging behind the other title candidates but it's an illusion really. It only seems Inter is doing poorly because those two defeats came so early in the season. In other matches, Inter looked as dominant as ever, and they still might end up being the top-six side with the best record against bottom half teams.
They might be one of the best when it comes to derby performances too. So far it doesn't look good as they played one and lost one, but soon they'll get their chance to make this right. Other than this Roma derby, they're playing Napoli, Fiorentina, Lazio and Milan in the next five rounds. Derbies all the way, with a brief Verona interruption in Round 10. Make or break time.
Probable Lineups
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Celik, Mancini, Ndicka - Wesley, Kone, Cristante, Tsimikas - Soule, Pellegrini - Dovbyk. Coach Gasperini.
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni - Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Sucic, Dimarco - Lautaro, Bonny. Coach Chivu.
Dybala is still out for Roma.
The Betting Market
The price on Roma to win is 3.30, almost the same as 3.20 for the draw, while Inter is a significant favourite at 2.25. There are hardly any draws in the recent H2H.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.10, while the Under is rewarded with 1.73, a decent price if you think Roma will continue with their one-goal totals of late. Inter may ruin this bet anytime by scoring freely though.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.95, with a 1.80 for NO, and we think this is a mistake by the bookmakers. It's more likely that only one team will do the scoring here.
The Betting Verdict
If you look at the ten most recent meetings, you'll see a whole bunch of Inter victories. Eight, to be exact. That's way too much for a derby, that's the kind of stats you expect to see when Inter faces one of the teams from the bottom half of the table. In other words, Inter is completely and utterly dominant in this fixture.
For several years now, Inter and Juventus are at the very top when it comes to performances in Italian derbies among the big six. Napoli is doing reasonably well too. But the likes of Roma and Lazio don't see much success here, they're the second tier, and there's a significant gap to the top three.
Roma has no way to compete with Inter other than to get lucky. Inter is just so much better in all areas of the pitch, and the only thing that could hurt Inter is the absence of Marcus Thuram. But still, Inter to win is the most reasonable bet, especially at this price.
We always say Italian derbies have one goal or five. This one seems to be the low-scoring kind.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Roma 0-2 Inter Milan
