Italian Serie A
2025-10-30 - Pisa vs Lazio
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Arena Garibaldi, Pisa, Tuscany, Italy (14,869)
Thursday, 30 October 2025, 20:45 CET
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Pisa Team News
Pisa did incredibly well to take a point with 2-2 against Milan on San Siro, though it seems anyone can score from any chance against this Milan. Cremonese did, Pisa did. It's almost too easy.
Pisa deserves credit for finding themselves in those situations and therefore giving themselves a chance to score, which means they at least went forward.
This is still a side that can only play defence, and sometimes bring the ball into the offensive third. To score a goal, they need a lot of luck or a penalty kick.
Lazio Team News
Lazio is getting some strange results. They got two consecutive clean sheets against Atalanta and Juventus despite suffering an onslaught - a total of 30 shots and 3.68 xG. Yet they played 0-0 at Atalanta and won 1-0 against Juventus.
And that's after they conceded three goals at home to Torino of all sides, and looked like they're up against Barcelona. So, all things considered, Lazio was either very lucky to not concede against Atalanta and Juventus or/and they're very good at last ditch defending. This isn't a side that should be able to keep clean sheets, let alone in consecutive matches.
Probable Lineups
Pisa (3-5-2): Šemper - Bonfanti, Caracciolo, Canestrelli - Toure, Akinsanmiro, Aebischer, Marin, Leris - Moreo, Nzola. Coach Gilardino.
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Basic, Cataldi, Guendouzi - Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni. Coach Baroni.
The Betting Market
Pisa is the underdog of course as the price on Lazio is 2.15. It's a good bet if you know something we don't and suddenly you trust Lazio to take care of matches such as this one. They won 0-3 at Genoa and lost 1-0 at Sassuolo. Of course they also lost 2-0 at Como.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.62, and the price is justified as a low-scoring game is expected. There's value to be found in the Both Teams To Score market as the Yes is priced at 1.95, with a 1.80 for No.
The Betting Verdict
Everyone will probably see this as a win-to-nil for Lazio. If you keep clean sheets against Atalanta and Juventus, well you certainly can against Pisa, right? Well, not quite. We think Lazio is guilty of casual defending whenever they aren't pinned into their own box, and it's more difficult to defend when you go forward anyway. So, paradoxically, Lazio is likelier to concede when facing a relegation candidate than a top side.
Still, we think this game will either be one where only Pisa does the scoring and Lazio is helpless, or a game where Lazio does what they want like they did in Genoa and Pisa can't resist.
The Pick :
Pisa 1-0 Lazio
