Italian Serie A
2025-12-07 - Napoli vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 14
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Sunday, 07 December 2025, 20:45 CET
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Napoli Team News
Napoli, incredibly, has four wins in a row, which only goes to show what a good coach can do to a team. Even though Napoli is almost deprived of midfield players due to injuries, and even though Napoli can't play in the offensive third, Conte set it all up so it works.
Napoli won the derbies against Atalanta and Roma, and also won against Qarabag and against Cagliari in the cup. The Roma result means Napoli is tied at the top with Milan - but needs a win here to catch Inter that already won their match on Saturday.
Juventus Team News
Juventus now has three wins in a row, but three wins against inferior opposition. As this too has been a problem this season, Juventus will gladly take the positives from the wins against Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League, Cagliari in the league and Udinese in the cup.
It seems this team is destined to almost always concede and play catch-up, and it's then only a matter if they're capable of scoring two. Since they're not a team that's designed to score in bunches, they have lots of problems with their results.
Spalletti will simply have to solidify the defence and make Juventus play like Napoli plays now if they want to climb up from the 7th spot and mount a serious title challenge.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic - Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno - Di Lorenzo, Elmas, McTominay, Olivera - Neres, Lang - Hojlund. Coach Conte.
Juventus (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio - Kalulu, Kelly, Koopmeiners - Cambiaso, Locatelli, Thuram, McKennie - Conceicao, Yildiz - David. Coach Spalletti.
Antonio Conte will field the only possible lineup, with a three-man defence, two defenders on flanks, and three forward players - to accomodate for only having three healthy midfielders.
Spalletti started fielding Teun Koopmeiners as a defender.
The Betting Market
The winner market is offering lots of opportunities to find value. Napoli is priced at 2.58 while you can get 3.36 on Juventus and 2.91 on the draw. Perhaps the Draw No Bet market will be easier to decypher as the two options are Napoli at 1.67 and Juventus at 2.15.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.37 as the bookmakers are all but certain that this will be a low-scoring game, as indicated by the price of 1.57. Both Teams To Score: NO is offering value at 1.75. As goals will come at a premium here, that's a good bet.
The Betting Verdict
These two sides are always leaning towards playing low-scoring derbies so it probably makes sense to bet on the same when they face each other.
Napoli is rock solid and can't score more than once, while Juventus isn't much different even if their defence is less reliable. Someone will win this 1-0 or it will end goalless.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 0-0 Juventus
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Under 2.5 Goals at 1.57 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Napoli to beat Juventus 2.50 @ 56% chance = 138% EV. 2nd place v 7th and Napoli 5-1-0 at home this year. OH and Napoli have won this fixture the last six times in a row.
Not a banker - but Napoli to win is a great +EV bet at Bet365
Not a banker - but Napoli to win is a great +EV bet at Bet365
