Italian Serie A
2025-12-20 - Juventus vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 16
Allianz Stadium, Torino, Piedmont, Italy (41,507)
Saturday, 20 December 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Juventus Team News
Juventus only lost once recently, to Napoli, and still has zero defeats at home all season. But this might as well be because of the incredibly easy home schedule, as they only got out-of-shape Atalanta and Milan at home in Turin so far, and both matches turned out to be boring draws.
Even if Juventus won at Bologna in the previous round, this side is far from stable. There's still a lot of soul searching here and it's likely Juventus won't find its true identity this season at all. So far, Luciano Spalletti's band-aid tactics serve as the backbone that keeps the team in matches, while Kenan Yildiz is the x-factor that brings goals. This isn't a good team -- just a decently-coached one with one superb player.
Roma Team News
After the defeat to Napoli and the most unfortunate 1-0 defeat at Cagliari following a red card, Roma bounced back with two wins-to-nil. The first victim was Celtic in the Champions League - the 0-3 was a great testament to Gasperini's tactics being effective in Europe too - and then Como was defeated with the classic Roma 1-0. Roma doesn't yet have a single draw this season, in any competition. It's either win or lose, mostly win-to-nil or lose-to-nil.
Roma is presently at the 4th spot, though they were topping the table not so long ago. They lost the top spot because of these two recent defeats, but throughout the season they're looking like one of the main scudetto candidates.
Probable Lineups
Juventus (3-5-1-1): Di Gregorio - Kalulu, Kelly, Cabal - McKennie, Locatelli, Thuram, Cambiaso - Conceicao, Yildiz - Openda. Coach Spalletti.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Celik, Hermoso, Mancini - Rensch, Cristante, Kone, Wesley - Pellegrini, Soule - Ferguson. Coach Gasperini.
Vlahovic is injured for Juventus so Openda could get the nod as David isn't performing. David has 1 goal in 14 appearances, Openda has 0 in 12. Kenan Del Piero is the only one doing the scoring around here, with 5 goals and 4 assists in 14 appearances. Vlahovic has 3 and 1.
Juventus is still in a defensive injury crisis, with Koopmeiners suspended now, Gatti still out, and Rugani and Bremer only returning from injuries.
El Aynaoui and Ndicka are at AFCON, and Dybala will again be on the bench for Roma. To draw a comparison with the Juventus #10, Soule is the go-to guy here with 4 goals and 3 assists. Ferguson and Dybala are both at 1-1. Dovbyk has a goal more but he's injured.
The Betting Market
Juventus is a 1.95 favourite despite losing to Napoli and Lazio, and drawing with Atalanta and Milan. No derby wins for Juve this season except for the long shot fest that was the 4-3 derby with Inter.
Roma edged the difficult city derby with Lazio 1-0 and then proceeded to lose to Inter, Milan and Napoli 1-0, so they haven't exactly fared much better in derbies either.
Another low-scoring derby is priced at 1.62 here, and that's just a bit too low for anyone's taste. An early goal could push this game Over 2.5 Goals and it's not worth the risk.
Both Teams To Score is even worse, with 2.00 for Yes and 1.75 for No. The latter could be considered as this is a near equivalent of Under 2.5 Goals, for a much better price. If you're leaning towards the Under, the BTTS-No is a better bet to make.
The Betting Verdict
If football is a duel of the ability of two coaches - which is our firm belief - then Gianpiero Gasperini should definitely have the upper hand on Luciano Spalletti despite having weaker chess figures. The innovative coach is inventing new things as he goes, and they all bring something new to the table, while on the other hand Juventus is troubled and can't seem to find a game plan that works.
The best bet here is so obvious that it's funny. How is Juventus, a troubled side that can't beat anyone in a derby (except for the accidental 4-3 win over Inter) so favoured against the best-coached big team in this league?
True, Roma is stuttering in derbies, but they were all one-goal wins that could have gone either way. Roma dominated proceedings against Inter, to name one example, and missed a spot kick for 1-1 againt Milan.
Well, if we're getting 2.00 on Juventus then it's 1.80 on Double Chance Draw or Roma. That's two outcomes that go in our favour. Juventus only gets one. Covering two out of three possible outcomes in a derby is good.
Note: you'll get a larger price, 1.87, if you click the Asian Handicap box at Bet365 and take Roma +0.5 instead.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Juventus 1-1 Roma
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Double Chance Draw or Roma at 1.87 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
One of my first value betting systems I found was my Serie A draw system, as the top Italian league is the most likely of the big four leagues to end all square averaging 27% over 20+ years and running at 28% and 29% of matches in each of the last three seasons.
The Draw also seems to be considered an honourable result between the big clubs, there is not outrage about dropped points by fans or social media, everyone seems OK with a draw in a big game.
I have this match as 40% likely to DRAW, admittedly on a small sample of only 25 previous games, but it is a solid lean and the bookies seem to know it too offering only just over 3.10 to 3.20 for it.
I'll take a small bet on the DRAW here taking the 3.20 at Bet365 before the price disappears.
The Draw also seems to be considered an honourable result between the big clubs, there is not outrage about dropped points by fans or social media, everyone seems OK with a draw in a big game.
I have this match as 40% likely to DRAW, admittedly on a small sample of only 25 previous games, but it is a solid lean and the bookies seem to know it too offering only just over 3.10 to 3.20 for it.
I'll take a small bet on the DRAW here taking the 3.20 at Bet365 before the price disappears.
