NCAA Football
2026-01-01 - Alabama Crimson Tide at Indiana Hoosiers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Quarter Final
Thursday 1st January 2025 - Scheduled 4pm
9pm (British Time)
Preview
If you want to know what kind of impact the transfer portal and NIL deals have had in College Football, just have a look at the spread for this Playoff Quarter Final.
The long-time contenders Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) and 'blue blood' are not only the lower Seed, but they are significant underdogs against the Indiana Hoosiers (13-0). Take away the names and it makes a lot of sense with the unbeaten Big Ten Champions building on a strong run in 2024, but it is still jarring for older College Football fans.
You have to believe the Crimson Tide are going to be highly motivated by the spread, even if some will pretend players and Coaches do not pay attention to the Vegas oddsmakers.
They have already overcome some of the criticism by being included in the Playoff by coming back from 17-0 down to beat the Oklahoma Sooners on the road in the First Round and earn revenge for a regular season loss. However, this feels like a significantly tougher challenge for the Crimson Tide against an opponent that has beaten the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks this season, two teams that also make up the final eight in the Playoff Bracket.
A season-long problem for the Crimson Tide has been at the Line of Scrimmage and an inability to run the ball.
This is not expected to change in this Quarter Final with the Hoosiers Defensive Line able to clamp down on the run and that means the pressure is on Quarter Back Ty Simpson. He has been inconsistent at times this season, which is not surprising without much support on the ground and having to convert third and long spots all over the field, while Simpson has seemingly been playing through an injury over the last several weeks.
Assuming the Crimson Tide don't change the habit of a 2025 season on New Year's Day, Ty Simpson is going to be put under incredible pressure by the Indiana pass rush. The Quarter Back has perhaps not been good enough with his footwork to make up for escaping pressure around him and Simpson could have a really tough day keeping the chains moving against one of the premier Defensive units in College Football.
All of this means the Crimson Tide are going to need the Defense to step up for them, but they are expected to be given a stern examination.
Much like Indiana, Alabama's Defensive Line have to be confident that they can at least slow down the Hoosiers run game, although perhaps not to the same extent as will be expected on the other side of the ball.
Some believe Quarter Back Fernando Mendoza is potentially going to be the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft next April and he is expected to showcase some of his talents against a Secondary that will also be pushing onto the next level. However, the Crimson Tide have been struggling against the pass against the stronger competition faced and this is where the Hoosiers may take command of this Quarter Final and avoid having another Number 1 Seed beaten in this Round following Big Ten Champions Oregon falling twelve months ago.
Fernando Mendoza has largely avoided mistakes in the passing game as well and so there is a feeling the Indiana Hoosiers will pull ahead and then have the pass rush pin back their ears on the other side of the ball.
This could lead to a turnover or two in their favour and the Indiana Hoosiers can show why they are considered the team to beat in the Playoff with a comprehensive victory.
Stephen Daley is missing for the Hoosiers, which is a blow, but Indiana can make up for that and still move into the Semi Final later this month.
Prediction
Lay the points with the Number 1 Seed.
The Pick :
Indiana Hoosiers 27-17 Alabama Crimson Tide
