Spanish La Liga
2026-01-24 - Villarreal vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Gladiator
Football: Spanish La Liga - Round 21
Estadio de la Cerámica (Villarreal), Spain
Saturday, 24th January 2026 - Kick Off 21:00 CET
Villarreal
Villarreal enter one of their most important fixtures of the season at a delicate moment. Their 2-1 Champions League defeat in midweek continued a troubling sequence, with five losses in their last seven outings across all competitions. Even at home, where they’re usually formidable, form has dipped: three defeats in their last four matches at La Cerámica underline a clear loss of momentum.
In La Liga, the Yellow Submarine remain firmly in the top-four picture, but back-to-back setbacks have put pressure on Marcelino’s side, especially after the 2-0 defeat to Betis in their most recent league outing. Villarreal have been excellent when scoring first this season, going unbeaten in all eight home games in which they've opened the scoring, but their current inconsistency makes it harder to trust them to control matches from the outset. Suspensions to key midfielders further complicate matters in what is already one of their toughest assignments of the campaign.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid make the trip to Castellón in far better spirits after demolishing Monaco 6-1 in the Champions League. That win captured the attacking confidence Alvaro Arbeloa has restored after a turbulent start to his tenure, and Madrid now carry four straight La Liga victories into this round. With just one point separating them from leaders Barcelona, every match feels crucial.
Their away record this season has been strong (W6, D3, L1), but it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Madrid’s recent away games have been chaotic, with three of their last four competitive road matches finishing 3-2—showing both their offensive threat and their defensive vulnerability. Missing Tchouaméni doesn’t help stability either, and Villarreal is traditionally one of the trickier trips on Madrid’s calendar.
The Betting Verdict
Despite Madrid’s strong form, this matchup feels far from straightforward. Villarreal may be struggling, but they remain one of the league’s strongest home sides when they find rhythm, and their attacking core, especially Gerard Moreno, tends to raise its level in big fixtures. Madrid’s recent defensive looseness on the road also leaves the door open for the hosts to get something from the game.
Given the balance of form, pressure, and matchup dynamics, the most sensible angle is to back Villarreal to avoid defeat. Even if Madrid dominate periods, Villarreal's home resilience and ability to disrupt bigger sides should keep this tight. A draw looks very realistic.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Villarreal 1-1 Real Madrid
