Spanish La Liga
2026-04-25 - Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
A Sports Betting Pick by ArmchairPunter
Football : Spain: La Liga
Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Saturday 25th April 2026, 2000hrs (GMT)
Atletico Madrid slumped to a fourth league defeat on the trot in La Liga in midweek as Diego Simeone’s side were dealt a disappointing 3-2 loss away from home at Elche which followed previous defeats at the hands of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla respectively.
However, it should be noted that three of Atletico Madrid’s recent four losses were dealt out to the upcoming hosts on their travels and a return to their Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Saturday night should see a much more determined looking Atletico outfit.
Simeone’s side had previously collected four wins on the trot in the domestic top flight prior to their recent slump where they recorded important victories over the likes of Getafe, Real Sociedad, Real Oviedo and Espanyol, while form and results on home soil still remain strong with a record of 13-1-2 35/14.
Athletic Bilbao occupy 9th place in the La Liga standings where they find themselves a significant 16 points adrift of their upcoming hosts, Atletico Madrid, but although they registered a 1-0 home win against Osasuna last time out, league wins have been hard to come by in recent times.
A previous 2-1 home win over Real Betis makes it just two wins in their last seven matches overall in La Liga while a spate of recent losses have also had a negative impact upon the visitors.
Four losses within their last seven games suggests Athletic Bilbao could well struggle against a solid-performing Atletico Madrid on home soil, especially having slumped to defeats against Barcelona, Girona, Getafe and Villarreal.
An ordinary looking away record of 3-3-9 13/26 further underlines the visitors’ problems on the road this season.
The Betting Verdict
Atletico Madrid have won the last three meetings at home in La Liga against Athletic Bilbao.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Atletico Madrid Win at odds of 2.15 with BetFred
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I know that Atletico Madrid have an important home UCL semi-final against Arsenal coming up in midweek - and I know that Atleti have lost four in a row (3 away from home) but how they are paying over even money to win this game is beyond me.
Atletico Madrid are 4th, with a 13-1-2 home record and are hosting Bilbao who are 3-3-9 on the road this season - it's a fixture that Atletico Madrid have won in each of the last 3 seasons.
Punter logic seems to be that Atletico Madrid will rest everyone in order to prepare to face Arsenal on Wednesday, but I don't see how throwing a home fixture in front of your fans helps any team to prepare with confidence. Diego Simeone confirmed as much.
I'll oppose the popular theme and take the good value bet.
Take ATLETICO MADIRD to win at 2.10 with Bet365
Atletico Madrid are 4th, with a 13-1-2 home record and are hosting Bilbao who are 3-3-9 on the road this season - it's a fixture that Atletico Madrid have won in each of the last 3 seasons.
Punter logic seems to be that Atletico Madrid will rest everyone in order to prepare to face Arsenal on Wednesday, but I don't see how throwing a home fixture in front of your fans helps any team to prepare with confidence. Diego Simeone confirmed as much.
I'll oppose the popular theme and take the good value bet.
Take ATLETICO MADIRD to win at 2.10 with Bet365
