German Bundesliga
2026-05-16 - Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Weserstadion – Bremen
Saturday, 16th May 2026 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Werder Bremen
Nerve-wracking seasons have been constant for Werder Bremen in recent years, and this season is no different. They constantly hovered above the relegation zone, always in danger.
However, they improved a bit since Daniel Thioune took over as their head coach in February. Then, they were a point above the relegation spots, and now they are 6 points above with this final game remaining.
Werder Bremen is winless in three Bundesliga matches, losing their last two against Augsburg and TSG Hoffenheim. Still, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich did them a massive favor last week by beating lowly opponents, so Werder Bremen secured its Bundesliga status for another season.
Werder Bremen has only 32 points at the moment, and a loss in this game would mark their third-worst Bundesliga season in history, even though they are safe.
Werder Bremen’s regular Japanese defender, Yukinari Sugawara (6 assists in 29 games), is suspended for this last game of the season for the red card he received in the 1-0 defeat to TSG Hoffenheim last week.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are always in the shadow of Bayern Munich, but this was one of their greatest Bundesliga seasons ever.
They have 70 points from 33 games, and if they win this game, their tally of 73 points will be the best since 76 points in 2019.
A few players flourished this season and could shine in this game as well. The top striker is Serhou Guirassy with 16 goals, and their midfielder Julian Ryerson has a whopping 14 assists, second-best to Michael Olise from Bayern Munich.
Also, sounds strange, but two defenders have also been great scorers - Nico Schlotterbeck and Ramy Bensebaini have scored 5 goals each this season.
The Betting Verdict
Borussia Dortmund is unbeaten in 6 Bundesliga duels against Werder Bremen, beating them 4 times. Their first game this season ended in a clear 3-0 win for Borussia Dortmund.
There is a strong chance both teams will score in this unimportant game, though I feel backing Borussia Dortmund is worth a shot, given the solid odds on the away win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Borussia Dortmund to win at odds of 1.95 with Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I know that Borussia Dortmund have lost their last two away games - but they're still 8-5-3 on the road this season and are now paying even money to end on a high.
Werder Bremen are in 15th spot, they're safe from relegation so there is no "must win" effect in play here and Bremen's 5-4-7 home record dos not inspire any confidence against the 2nd best side in the Bundesliga.
My stats have Dortmund a full goal better even when playing on the road and based on 112 previous games in the Bundesliga they are 56% likely to win this game and finish their season on a high.
The price of 2.00 means it's +EV betting so I will take DORTMUND to WIN at 2.00 win Bet365 or +105 with Bookmaker.EU
Werder Bremen are in 15th spot, they're safe from relegation so there is no "must win" effect in play here and Bremen's 5-4-7 home record dos not inspire any confidence against the 2nd best side in the Bundesliga.
My stats have Dortmund a full goal better even when playing on the road and based on 112 previous games in the Bundesliga they are 56% likely to win this game and finish their season on a high.
The price of 2.00 means it's +EV betting so I will take DORTMUND to WIN at 2.00 win Bet365 or +105 with Bookmaker.EU
