Tennis
2026-06-05 - Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : French Open Semi Final
Friday 5th June 2026 - Scheduled 7pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
An all-Italian Semi Final that does not feature Jannik Sinner will come as a surprise to those tuning into the French Open on Day 13 of the tournament, but that is no concern to either Matteo Arnaldi or Flavio Cobolli. Both have taken advantage of their compatriot exiting the tournament in the Second Round and opening up the top half of the draw, but credit has to be given to both Arnaldi and Cobolli for making sure they are in this position.
If Alexander Zverev wins the other Semi Final, the winner of this one will be the underdog on Sunday, but that should not be the focus for either player as they look to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final in its own right.
The clay courts will be comfortable for Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli and it is going to be another Semi Final where the player who handles the occasion the best is likely going to find a way through. They are very familiar with one another being from the same country, while Matteo Arnaldi being 25 years old and Flavio Cobolli being 24 years old means they have likely known one another for many years.
Being familiar with the opponent should help settle the nerves somewhat and it is going to be the sixth meeting on the Tour with the first of those played back in 2021- Flavio Cobolli won that one before Matteo Arnaldi won three in a row, but it was Cobolli who was the winner again when these two met right here at the French Open last year.
It was a dominant Second Round win for Flavio Cobolli back in May 2025, although the setting around this one will be much different and that has to be a factor.
Despite that, Flavio Cobolli should be the fresher player, which gives him an edge, and he has made much more serene progress through the draw. His overall performances on the Tour have been a bit more convincing compared with Matteo Arnaldi, who was the World Number 36 when they met at Roland Garros last year, but who begun this event outside of the top 100.
Back to back five setters saw Matteo Arnaldi just get himself through some fine margins, but he looked a little fatigued in the Quarter Final- it was Matteo Berrettini who ultimately saw his body let him down and a two hour match abruptly concluded when Berrettini was forced out with an injury.
That will help Arnaldi in his recovery, but this is a much different kind of match against Flavio Cobolli and you have to expect the higher Ranked Italian to have too much for him once again at the French Open.
A battling win over Felix Auger Aliassime means Flavio Cobolli has only dropped two sets in his run to the French Open Semi Final and the conditions should not be as tough as they were on Wednesday.
Nothing will come easy with a spot in a Grand Slam Final on the line, but Flavio Cobolli may eventually wear down Matteo Arnaldi, who has to be feeling all of the tennis he has already played. Expect long rallies to wear down Arnaldi and that could allow Flavio Cobolli to eventually move into the French Open Final with a cover of this handicap mark set.
Prediction
This will be a proud day for Italian Tennis, but only one player can make it through to the French Open Final.
The edge here is with Flavio Cobolli, who should be fresher and who got the better of Matteo Arnaldi at Roland Garros last year.
The Pick :
Matteo Arnaldi 1-3 Flavio Cobolli
