NCAA Football
2009-12-23 - Utah at California
A Sports Betting Pick by Bookmaker
Poinsettia Bowl
Location : San Diego, California (TV on ESPN)
Wednesday, December 23rd 2009, Kickoff 8:00 pm. ET
California and Utah meet for the seventh time, with the Golden Bears leading the series four games to two. However, look for Utah to close the gap by one with a win in San Diego.
Utah Utes (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS)
The Utes have been victorious in eight straight bowl games, including an impressive 6-2 ATS mark. In fact, they are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS career-wise in postseason play when getting points.
They didn't have as solid a year in 2009 as last season's undefeated campaign, but 9-3 with losses to Oregon, TCU and BYU is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
Utah lost by only a touchdown to the Ducks, a team that blew out California by 39 points. In that game, the Utes held Jeremiah Masoli to 4-of-16 passing for just 95 yards, just one example of how dominant their pass defense has been in '09 as they finished sixth nationally, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 50.1% completion percentage.
The Utah defense also held Max Hall to 134 yards threw the air on 12-of-32 passing in a three-point overtime loss in Provo. The only other defeat was a 55-28 loss at TCU, but the Utes can take some solace in the fact they scored the most points against a Horned Frogs defense since September 2008, a span of 18 games.
California Golden Bears (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)
California comes into this contest at 8-4, including a 2-2 mark in its final four games. The two wins came over Arizona (a game the Golden Bears led by only two points with less than two minutes remaining) and Stanford.
The win over the Cardinal is not as impressive as it sounds, considering Jim Harbaugh's club was coming off a very emotional triumph over USC the week before and was due for a letdown.
The Bears defense has been shaky all season long, allowing 24.5 points-per- game. In addition, the unit gave up 117 points in the final four contests.
After finishing the '08 season tops in the Pac-10 in defensive quarterback completion percentage at 50%, the secondary was abused in '09 allowing 63%, good for eighth best in the league.
Cal's talent level dropped considerably, though, when it was announced that RB Jahvid Best (6.1 yards per carry) would miss this game because of a concussion.
The Betting Verdict
Sure, there is a the difference in talent between the Pac-10 and the Mountain West, but we fancy Utah to keep this one close, and possbily squeeze a win as the more motivated side.
The Pick :
Take Utah plus the points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Utah plus the points.
