English FA CUP
2011-01-29 - Everton vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English FA Cup 4th Round
Saturday 29 January 2011 - Kickoff 12:45pm
This game is live on TV
Everton
Everton remain an enigma to be cracked by us punters- they give all the top teams a really hard time but have struggled to win at low prices against the likes of Wigan, Wolves and, most recently, West Ham all at Goodison Park. David Moyes continues to do an excellent job at Everton, and I am sure he would dearly love a measure of revenge against the team that prevented him from getting his first trophy as boss of this club when Chelsea beat them in the FA Cup Final 2 seasons ago.
The inconsistency of the Toffees this season means they are sitting in 14th place in the Premier League, and are 5 points better off than Wigan in 18th. Everton are 3-5-3 at Goodison Park this season, scoring 14 goals and conceding 15 and it is the lack of goals that remains a problem. Only Wigan, West Ham and Birmingham have scored less goals at home in the League.
The late draw that was scrambled against West Ham means Everton have lost just 1 of their last 9 games in all competitions. They would have been much further up the table if they had won more than 3 of those games. Everton may be unbeaten in their last 3 games at Goodison Park, but they have only won 1 in their last 6 in front of the home supporters.
James Vaughan has been allowed to leave the club on loan during this transfer window. Tim Cahill is still with Australia at the Asian Games. Phil Jagielka could return to the starting line up after an unused substitute in the game against West Ham.
Chelsea
There are definite signs that Chelsea are beginning to turn their season back around after a horrible period of results left them 10 points behind Manchester United in the race for the title. The 0-4 win at Bolton looked like further proof that the team is back on course although the home team were ordinary after Didier Drogba had scored. There were also rumours of a 52 million pound bid for Sergio Aguero and Godin of Atletico Madrid, but that was denied and David Luis looks to be the only player they will be pursuing.
Chelsea made their position in 4th place in the Premier League a little more secure with the win at the Reebok Stadium as they pushed themselves 4 points better off than Tottenham in 5th. The Blues are only 5 points behind Arsenal in 2nd now and cannot be ruled out for a late surge to the top. They are 4-3-5 away from home this season, scoring 18 goals and conceding 12.
The win at Bolton was the third on the spin for Chelsea. They scored 13 times in those games and kept 3 clean sheets to give their supporters a better feeling as we get ready to resume Champions League football. That also stopped a slide where the team had won just 1 of 8 games in all competitions. The win at Bolton was the first for Chelsea away from home in 8 games, the last one coming at Blackburn on the 30th October.
Carlo Ancelotti made his feelings clear by naming a strong team for the game with Ipswich in the 3rd Round of the competition and I would be surprised if he changes his policy with a tougher assignment in the form of Everton. Frank Lampard missed the game on Monday but will be hopeful to return to the side.
Head to Head
The Chelsea win in the FA Cup Final of 2009 is the only time they have tasted success in 6 games between the sides. On the other hand, Chelsea have lost just 1 of the last 23 meetings between the sides in all competitions.
Everton have not been beaten here by Chelsea on the last 2 occasions, although the Londoners had won 3 in a row here before this.
The last time they played here the game finished 2-1 to the home side.
Prediction
This is probably the tie of the round as the tough and resilient Everton side meets a Chelsea side that is many are not exactly sure where they are at. Not many are sure, but the bookmakers seem to be by pricing the away side at a shade over odds on.
Chelsea do have a good recent record here, but have failed to win their last 2 games so I am not quite sure why they are such big favourites to win the game.
Emotionally, the Everton team should be happy after securing a late draw last week and they seem to raise their game against the 'bigger' sides in the Premier League. David Moyes will also feel his side are capable of upsetting Chelsea's performance in a better manner than Ipswich, Blackburn or Bolton could have in the last 3 games for the Blues.
I might look a real fool on Saturday by around 2:45pm, but I am going to back the home side NOT to lose on the Asian Handicap.
The Pick :
Everton 1-1 Chelsea
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the home side not to lose- Everton + 0.5 Asian HandicapFollow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- there is a direct link below
