NBA Basketball
2011-04-25 - San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 25 April 2011 - Tip-Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Game 4 Western Conference 1st Round
Preview
This series always looked like being much closer than the Number 1 and Number 8 seeds may likely to have expected to have given us. The Memphis Grizzlies (48-37) have the surprise 2-1 lead in the series over the San Antonio Spurs (62-23) but this could be the most pivotal game of the series.
The Grizzlies prevailed by 3 points in Game 3 on Saturday and remain in control of home court advantage after winning Game 1 in Texas. However, Zach Randolph has warned his teammates not to take anything for granted and that this series is far from over.
Lionel Hollins maintains that the best way for his Grizzlies team to beat the Spurs is to protect the 3 point line, while trying to control the paint, something he accepts is a tough ask for 7 games.
Randolph has continued to impress with his points per game, but the Grizzlies are desperately hoping the big man can get closer to his 12.2 rebounds per game season average after snaring just 10 in the last 2 games.
San Antonio believe they are making mistakes with Tim Duncan shouldering the blame along with Tony Parker. However, this veteran group is also being affected by injuries with Antonio McDyess the latest to suffer.
McDyess should be good to go tonight after practicing on Sunday, while Manu Ginobili admits he is still feeling pain in his right elbow which is making it uncomfortable to find a rhythm with his shooting.
Tim Duncan will also be hoping to change history as him and the Spurs have not recovered from a 2-1 deficit in any Play Off series where they opened the series at home.
Head to Head
The teams have met 7 times this season with all the games being close contests. Memphis now lead 4-3 after the regular season series was split 2-2.
I think it is quite telling that 6 of the 7 games they have played this season have been decided by 7 points or less, something that made the Grizzlies really fancy their chances in the series.
Memphis have won all 3 home games with San Antonio this season.
Memphis are 27-14-1 against the spread at home this season, San Antonio are 25-16-1 on the road.
Memphis are 26-14 when playing with 1 days rest between games, San Antonio are 25-17-2 on the same rest period.
Other Interesting Notes
Memphis are 25-7-1 against the spread in their last 33 games as the underdog.
The Grizzlies are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
San Antonio are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, the Spurs are just 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games following a loss.
Prediction
I am backing the San Antonio Spurs to win and cover the spread according to the 'zigzag theory'.
Both teams are really closely matched and the close nature of the series means it is ripe for the theory. Essentially I am saying that the Spurs will have made the necessary adjustments to turn a close loss into a win, while the Grizzlies may not be able to implement their game plan from Game 3 in the same manner.
This is a really important game in the series for both teams and it will be pressure filled which could make it fun to watch.
I expect the Spurs are good enough to tie this series up as we head back to Texas.
The Pick :
Memphis Grizzlies 91-95 San Antonio Spurs
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the San Antonio Spurs -1.5 Points @ 1.95 (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter- the direct link is below
