NFL Football
2012-01-14 - New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Saturday, January 14th, 2012, 4:30PM US
(9:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
This is going to be a great game, and it's been very hard to try and find a bet between the 2 sides. The Saints boast a killer offence, thanks to Drew Brees, but San Francisco have allowed just 14.3 points per game, making them the best defence. The ground defence has been awesome, allowing just 3 rushing TD all season, an NFL record. That means it will be up to Drew Brees to win this one though the air, like he has been doing all season. I don't think it's going to be easy though.
New Orleans won on their last visit here, with the final score 25-22 thanks to a late FG winner. The spread has been set at 3.5 with the 49ers underdogs, and if you press me for a side, I think the home side with is the call. The Saints have looked awesome because Drew Brees has put up ridiculous numbers, but look at the road record, where they have gone just 5-3.
The numbers most will look at are those set by Brees. League leading 49 TDs with 14 interceptions and a league leading 5,942 yards. They've also won 9 games on the trot, and 10 of their last 11. Looks great. Now let's look at it from another angle.
How many of those games were played outside? Just one. Yep, Brees is the balls, but only when playing indoors. Inside, he has 37 TDs, but when playing outdoors he has just 9 TDs and 6 interceptions. Suddenly, he doesn't look so hot. He's going to struggle against the NFC's best defence on Saturday. San Francisco are going to give him a rough time if a team like St. Louis can host, frustrate and beat the Saints. For that is what happened to Brees when he brought his team here earlier this season.
Another thing, the Saints have never won a road playoff game, indoors or outdoors! Last year, they were a dangerous team too, and what happened? They went to Seattle, a 7-9 team, and got beaten 41-36! Yeah, Brees tried to pass his team to victory, and ended up with 404 yards, but thats not what counts does it?
San Francisco have the best punter in the NFL in Andy Lee, who had 78 punts for 3,970 yards and landed 28 attempts inside the 20-yard line! That means he will always give the Saints a long difficult field to work with, as he has all season. Indeed, opponents of San Francisco this season have started just 11 drives in the 49ers half, best in the NFL.
San Francisco will also have long fields to work with thanks to New Orleans punter, and they will have to, because with short fields the 49ers have scored a crazy number of points this season. 37 times they started drives in opposition territory and racked up 134 with those chances, again, best in the NFL.
BETTING VERDICT
As you can see, I have a feeling New Orleans will struggle to beat the 49ers. However, while The Saints might struggle to put up the kind of points they have been recently at home in the dome, they should be able to frustrate Alex Smith too, and we should see the 49ers kick a lot of FGs just to get something rather than nothing.
This will be very tight, all the way to the end. What I do predict is a low-scoring game and accordingly, I will take the Under bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Under 47.5 points
