ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - CHELSEA V NEWCASTLE UNITED

English Premier

2012-08-25 - Chelsea vs Newcastle United

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Chelsea v Newcastle United
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 25 August 2012 - Kick Off 5:30pm
This game is live on TV

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Chelsea

Chelsea have picked up two wins from their opening two games in the Premier League this season, but there hasn't been the fluidity in their performances that some would have expected. Beating two teams that are likely to be involved in the bottom half of the table is one thing, but this could be an entirely different test.

One player that has impressed in the early stages of this season is Eden Hazard who has created 5 of the 6 goals Chelsea have scored so far this season. The Blues were 0-2 winners at Wigan Athletic when the Belgian created both goals, and they followed that with a 4-2 home win over Reading, although that game was tied at 2-2 with under 10 minutes to play.

They have lost 1 of their last 10 Premier League home games going back to the end of December. The defence has been a concern and they haven't started off that well on that front as both Wigan and Reading created chances and Chelsea have now failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 home games.

Marko Marin is out until after the international break, while David Luiz missed the game against Reading and could be absent for this one too. Gary Cahill scored against Reading and may retain his place at centre back.

Newcastle United

It was more than a little surprise that Newcastle United were not given additional time between their Europa League tie in Greece and this Premier League game with less than 48 hours between games. However, Alan Pardew rested many of his starters in the European game and they should be fully prepared for this one.

Newcastle finished 5th in the Premier League last season and they started off this season with a 2-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur at St James' Park, the team who finished 4th last season. They did finish with an 8-3-8 record away from home, scoring 27 goals but conceding 34, which was only less wins than the top three teams.

It was a poor end to the season that ultimately cost Newcastle a place in the top four as they lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games, although they did far exceed expectations. Newcastle won 5 and lost 7 of their last 12 away League games.

Fabricio Coloccini missed the opening game of the season, but he was rested during the week for the Europa League game and is expected back in the team on Saturday. The likes of Demba Ba, Hatem Ben Arfa, Yohan Cabaye, Cheick Tiote, Danny Simpson and David Santon should all be restored having missed the game in Athens on Thursday.

Head to Head

Chelsea were beaten 0-2 here by Newcastle United towards the end of the season last year, but they were heavily concentrating on the FA Cup and Champions League at that point as 4th place was already out of their reach.

However, that result means Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 4 visits to Stamford Bridge in all competitions.

Before this mini-run, Chelsea had won 8 in a row at home against Newcastle in all competitions.

Prediction

I haven't been that impressed with Chelsea despite the fact that they have won both of their League games so far this season, and I was very close to getting the Reading + 1.5 correct, except the Royals sent their keeper out for an attacking corner and were caught on the counter-attack with the final kick of the game.

Eden Hazard looks a real talent, but teams will be a little more aware of some of his moves after seeing him the first couple of games. I still think the Belgian will be effective, but Newcastle have shown they can be very tough to break down at times over the last 12 months and are capable of making life difficult for the best teams.

The Magpies also have the players that could take advantage of any defensive issues Chelsea have and the Blues have offered up chances to their opponents in their first two games.

I expect Newcastle will get on the scoresheet and they may be the first side to take points off Chelsea this season, especially if they defend as effectively as they can with Cheick Tiote and Yohan Cabaye harassing players in the middle of the park.

However, the lack of time between this game and Newcastle's game in Athens is a worry as they won't have the same preparation time as they may have liked.

With that in mind, I am going to back Newcastle with a goal start on the Asian Handicap. That would have been a winner in the last four meetings between the teams here in all competitions, and would have been a push in 3 meetings before that run so looks to have that element of safety about it.

The Statistics :

The Pick :