Rugby League
2026-09-11 - South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Finals 2026
Friday 11th September 2026 – KO 1950 AEST
South Sydney Rabbitohs
South Sydney come into the finals with plenty of attacking firepower and, importantly, home-ground advantage after finishing 6th in the regular season. Their final-round demolition of the Roosters, a 50-20 victory, is an enormous confidence boost heading into September.
The Rabbitohs have the sort of spine that can completely change a finals match. When their halves and fullback are combining effectively, Souths can attack from anywhere on the field. Their forward pack also has enough size and aggression to make life uncomfortable for Newcastle through the middle.
Cameron Murray is particularly important and he has been in sublime form. His ability to play big minutes, create second-phase opportunities and get Souths moving forward will be crucial. If South Sydney can establish momentum through the middle, it gives their playmakers considerably more time and space.
The major question is whether Souths can maintain that intensity for 80 minutes. They have had periods this season where their attack has looked outstanding, followed by patches where their discipline and defensive concentration have let them down, often in the second half.
The good news for Souths is that they appear to be getting players back at the right time. Tallis Duncan is among the players returning for the finals, while the Rabbitohs are expected to have a relatively strong squad available.
Newcastle Knights
Newcastle deserve plenty of credit for reaching the finals. They have been an inconsistent side at times but possess enough talent to cause a serious upset if they get their football right. Newcastle finished 7th in the regular season on equal points with Souths but well behind on points differential. The Knights biggest challenge is going to be dealing with South Sydney's attacking weapons. Newcastle cannot afford to give Souths cheap field position or allow the Rabbitohs to get repeat sets close to the line.
Their own attack, however, gives them a chance. Newcastle have demonstrated throughout the year that they can score points when their key players are allowed to play with freedom. They also have players capable of producing something from nothing, which is particularly valuable in a knockout game. Newcastle will need their forward pack to win the early exchanges. If they can dominate possession and territory during the opening 20 minutes, they can make this a very uncomfortable night for South Sydney.
Newcastle also receive a boost with Dominic Young returning for finals week.
Odds
Souths are rated as favourites, $1.40 to $3.00, the line is 8.5 points and combined points 47.5
The Betting Verdict
The opening week of the 2026 NRL finals gets underway with a genuine do-or-die clash between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and Newcastle Knights. Souths finished sixth and Newcastle seventh, meaning there is no second chance for either side - the loser’s season is over and the winner will face the loser of Warriors v Dolphins at their home ground.
This is a fascinating matchup because both sides have shown enough throughout 2026 to believe they can go deep into September, but neither has been consistent enough to enter this contest without question marks.
If South Sydney's forwards get on top and Cameron Murray can dictate the tempo, the Rabbitohs should have enough attacking class to exploit Newcastle's edges. But if Newcastle can slow the ruck down, win the territorial battle and force Souths into attacking from deep, the Knights have a genuine chance of turning this into an upset.
Overall H2H is close, Newcastle is just ahead 18-19. These teams met twice in 2026 - Newcastle winning 42-38 in May and Rabbitohs 26-24 in July. Neither team enjoy playing at Allianz, Souths are 33-66 and the Knights 9-20
Finals football is different. One poor defensive set, a silly penalty or an unnecessary error can completely change the momentum of a knockout game. Souths have the advantage of experience in these situations, and that could prove significant late in the match.
The market appears to have South Sydney as the deserved favourite, and I agree with that assessment. However, I wouldn't be rushing to take Souths at a short price. Newcastle are good enough to stay in this game for a long period, and elimination finals can become very unpredictable. My preferred angle would be South Sydney to win, but Newcastle with the start is attractive at the handicap of +8.5 points
Rabbitohs by 4
The Pick :
South Sydney Rabbitohs 24-20 Newcastle Knights
