Tennis
2022-08-02 - Naomi Osaka vs Qinwen Zheng
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: WTA San Jose First Round
Tuesday 2nd August 2022 - Scheduled 4pm
12am British Time
Preview
We have not seen Naomi Osaka since her early loss at the French Open and in that time she has made a chance in her coaching team. The multiple time Grand Slam Champion on the hard courts of Melbourne and New York City should be entering a very good time of the season for her, but Naomi Osaka has long struggled with the mental demands of the Tour and it can be difficult to know which player is going to turn up from day to day.
She will certainly need to be at her best if she is going to move past Qinwen Zheng in this First Round match in San Jose as the run towards the US Open continues at a pace. Qinwen Zheng is one of a number of younger players on the Tour who look to be progressing towards the top of the WTA Rankings and the 19 year old certainly plays with plenty of confidence.
At this age there is certainly some room for improvement and it would not be a surprise if Qinwen Zheng looks up to Naomi Osaka and all she has achieved in the sport. The hard court numbers in 2022 have been decent from Zheng, but the second serve is one area where she has been vulnerable and I also think there is scope for improvement on the return.
The problem for Qinwen Zheng is that she has struggled with her first serve percentage in her hard court matches this year and she perhaps chases the 'free' points a little too much. It has meant the vulnerable second serve has been seen plenty and someone as aggressive as Naomi Osaka will look to take advantage.
In saying that, Osaka has long felt her own return game could be improved and even in years when she has had deep runs in Grand Slam events or won them, the Japanese player has won 43% or fewer return points played over the course of a season on this surface. In 2022 Naomi Osaka is at 43% of return points won on the hard courts, but she does build plenty of pressure with her serve and overall she still performs as one of the top players on this surface.
Building momentum towards the US Open has to be the ambition for Naomi Osaka who could go into that tournament as the favourite if she performs as she can. The former World Number 1 will feel her own serve is a much more potent weapon than the one coming from the other side of the net and it may make the difference in the outcome of this First Round match.
Shaking off the match rustiness as soon as possible is very important, while Naomi Osaka can sometimes be guilty of losing her concentration and falling away in some matches. After reaching the Final of the Miami Masters back in March, I am looking for Osaka to have a big month before the US Open begins and she can get off to a very good start.
It is a big spread when you consider the talent that Qinwen Zheng has and the long lay off for Naomi Osaka, but the latter can build the scoreboard pressure to break down the younger player.
Prediction
Lay the games with the favourite making her return to the Tour.
The Pick :
Naomi Osaka 2-0 Qinwen Zheng
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games at 2.00 with BetFred
