Tennis
2026-02-27 - Felix Auger Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : ATP 500 Dubai Semi Final
Friday 27th February 2026 - Scheduled 5pm
1pm (British Time)
Preview
All four Semi Finalists in Dubai have been playing some exceptional tennis this week and there may be very little between them.
The first Semi Final looks a really competitive one when Felix Auger Aliassime, the Number 1 Seed, takes on Daniil Medvedev, the Number 3 Seed.
In three wins each, the two players have combined to lose serve just three times and the numbers have been very solid. Felix Auger Aliassime has held 97% of service games played and has been winning 75% of service points played, while Daniil Medvedev has 91% and 69% marks in both categories.
No one will be very surprised to hear that Medvedev has had the superior return numbers, but he has also faced much weaker opposition compared with Felix Auger Aliassime.
The initial meetings on the Tour had been dominated by Daniil Medvedev, but Felix Auger Aliassime won the last completed match at the Paris Olympics a little over eighteen months ago. Last year he beat Medvedev when the Russian retired at the end of the first set in Doha, but the previous seven hard court matches have all been won by Daniil Medvedev.
Felix Auger Aliassime has really struggled to impose his serve in those previous hard court matches, while also having difficulty dealing with the Daniil Medvedev serve. That is perhaps the main reason he is set as the narrow underdog, but this should be close considering what we have seen from both players, not only here in Dubai, but in general over the last month.
The high level performances of both players should mean they are both operating with a lot of confidence and that could make this a really competitive Semi Final.
It may be one that features at least one Tie-Breaker with the expectation that there may be very little between these high Ranked rivals.
My narrow edge is with Daniil Medvedev and the superior return game, but Felix Auger Aliassime has served well enough to deserve a lot of respect.
Prediction
This should be a close, competitive Semi Final between two players in very strong form and backing at least one Tie-Breaker to be needed looks the right play.
The Pick :
Felix Auger Aliassime 1-2 Daniil Medvedev
