Tennis
2026-03-11 - Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : ATP 1000 Indian Wells Fourth Round
Wednesday 11th March 2026 - Scheduled 11am
6pm (British Time)
Preview
The Fourth Round defeat at the Australian Open not only hurt because it came relatively early in the draw, but the manner in which Daniil Medvedev was beaten would have stung.
There may have been something of a hangover after that tournament with early defeats in Rotterdam and Doha on the board, but Daniil Medvedev cruised through the draw at the ATP 500 event in Dubai and won the title.
The World Number 11 concluded the title win just hours after the Middle East erupted into a war that meant airspace was closed and that also meant Daniil Medvedev arrived in Indian Wells a little later than planned. However, that has not impacted the confidence that he would have picked up from that run in Dubai and Daniil Medvedev has impressed through the first two wins at the opening ATP 1000 event of the season.
Another strong run will help Daniil Medvedev move back into the top ten of the World Rankings and it will also offer him a boost as he looks to find a way to bridge the gap between himself and the top two players in the world.
Once again Daniil Medvedev is producing some strong numbers on the hard courts and he is backing up his serve by keeping opponents under pressure on the return.
The returning side of his tennis will be tested by Alex Michelsen who had been struggling for consistency since reaching the Semi Final in Brisbane and before he arrived in Indian Wells. The American had not won consecutive matches since Brisbane, but Michelsen is back on track with three wins at this tournament and that will give him some belief.
Adding to the confidence is the fact he was able to beat Taylor Fritz in the Third Round and Alex Michelsen is already moving his World Ranking back in the right direction with the run he is putting together here.
Reaching the Fourth Round is already the best run he has produced at Indian Wells and he is really making the best use out of the serve in the conditions.
Alex Michelsen is going to be well aware that he needs to continue serving well if he is going to beat Daniil Medvedev for the first time having been beaten in all three previous matches.
Two have been on the hard courts, including here in Indian Wells last year in a match that lasted just two games and the other in the Brisbane Semi Final in January and Alex Michelsen has really struggled to impose his serve on this opponent.
Putting the very short match here at Indian Wells aside, it should be noted that Alex Michelsen only won 53% of points behind serve when facing Daniil Medvedev in Brisbane and he was broken four times in that match. He did create chances against the Medvedev serve, but the biggest points were won by the higher Ranked player and that could be the outcome in this Fourth Round match too.
Daniil Medvedev will recognise that his opponent is playing with some confidence, but the World Number 11 has been in really good nick for a couple of weeks now and he may have the superior returning numbers to edge to a cover of this handicap mark set.
Prediction
Lay the games with the higher Ranked player in this Fourth Round match.
The Pick :
Daniil Medvedev 2-0 Alex Michelsen
