ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - ARSENAL V CHELSEA

English Premier

2012-04-21 - Arsenal vs Chelsea

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

ARSENAL v CHELSEA
Football : English : Premier League
Saturday, April 21st, 2012, 12:45PM GMT

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PREVIEW

Arsenal suffered yet another shock defeat, their 2nd in 3 games, and this time it came at home to lowly Wigan. I say lowly, but this is a side that has recently beaten Manchester United, Liverpool and got very unlucky against Chelsea. Both QPR and Wigan are fighting for their lives, and both have pulled out big wins against other sides. Against Wigan, Arsenal blew things in 2 horrible minutes, with one of the goals coming while the Gunners were a man down. Anyway, they've had all week to pick themselves up and prepare for this one.

Chelsea have played some cracking matches recently but I wonder about how tired they might be. The 5-1 thumping of Spurs was not as easy a match as the score suggests, and the Blues played their hearts out to keep Barcelona from scoring. Fatigue is not the only issue here. There is a double whammy of a letdown following the huge win over Barcelona (and Spurs) which could see their levels and concentration drop, and the look-ahead spot where they will no doubt have their minds on that massive game just days away where they must fly to Spain to finish what they started.

Yes, the Premier League top 4 finish is more important than a Champions League match, but there are a whole bunch of Chelsea veterans that know they won't be playing for the Blues next year, and will want that win over Barcelona. It becomes priority for key players like Lampard and Drogba, and a few others. I just don't think we can rely on Chelsea here in any form.

The Blues have won just 1 of their last 7 away from home. They are scoring just 1.35 per game when travelling. On average they have conceded a goal per away game, and in their last 6 trips away from the Bridge they have failed to keep their opponents from scoring, losing half those games. Chelsea are also not good at keeping leads in the league. Fulham clawed their way back to draw, and Villa came from 0-2 down to level, before going behind again. Manchester United famously came back from 0-3 down, and then there was the 5-3 beating Chelsea took from this very Arsenal side.

Arsenal have messed up by taking it easy/underestimating their opponents when playing lesser teams like QPR and Wigan, but they have concentrated and fought perfectly with the big sides. Newcastle, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea all led this team but lost. Arsenal have lost only 3 times this season at the Emirates, are scoring the 3rd most goals here and have the 3rd best home record. Their 14 goals conceded at home is the 3rd lowest, and that is less than 1 a game. They are priced as favourites and correctly so.

BETTING VERDICT

I'm not going to overthink this one. Arsenal are at home, will be concentrating only on this game, and have had enough rest, despite the injuries that are not so much of an issue. The defence is fit, and Arteta gets replaced by the very able Aaron Ramsey.

Chelsea's heads are not going to be all here, and who can blame them after what they have accomplished this week? It only takes a brief lapse in concentration and boom, you've gone behind, just like that. Wigan did it to Arsenal here, twice, so why not take Arsenal to do it to Chelsea? You know it makes sense.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Consider Arsenal to win @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)