Rose Bowl

#6 Penn State vs #5 USC
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California.
Thursday, January 1st 2009 - Kickoff 4:30 p.m

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USC : (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS, Under 8-3-1)

If this is the Rose Bowl, it must be the USC Trojans.

They’ve played at the "Grandaddy of Them All" four of the last five years, going 3-1 SU and ATS. The lone setback was against Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns three years ago for the national championship.

Pete Carroll’s Trojans have won seven straight Pac-10 titles and two national titles since he took over as coach in 2001. This year’s team is ranked No. 5 by the BCS and the AP.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez (30 TDs, 10 INTs) is already an improvement over John David Booty and posted a higher passer rating (159.1) than 2004 Heisman winner Matt Leinart (156.5).

Penn State : (11-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, Over 7-4)

Four years ago, Joe Paterno (11-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) was supposed to be too old to coach college football. But his Penn State Nittany Lions have earned four straight bowl appearances, and Paterno, 82 on Sunday, carries a fresh contract extension with him to the Rose Bowl against the USC Trojans.

Joe Paterno’s Nittany Lions made an even bigger upgrade at QB, replacing Anthony Morelli (19 TDs, 10 INTs last year) with Daryll Clark (17 TDs, four INTs).

The Lions arguably have the better offense in this matchup, but like USC were shut out of consideration for the national title game – the BCS has Penn State all the way down at No. 8. This is an undervalued football club.

ANALYSIS

Either of these teams would have made a deserving BCS title game opponent.

But while Pete Carroll’s Trojans are 10-point favorites (-105) in Pasadena, Paterno’s Lions were rated ahead of USC in the stat-friendly Fremeau Efficiency Index heading into the season finale.

PSU was ranked No. 3 in the FBS with the Trojans at #5. College Football News also has them ranked very close with USC #7 and PSU #8.

How close are these teams?
USC averages 453 yards and 37.5 points per game;
PSU averages 452 yards and 40.2 points per game.

But factoring heavily in punters minds is the fact that the Trojans have absolutely dominated the Big Ten in recent seasons, winning eight straight against the conference by an average of 25 points, including four consecutive BCS bowl games.

THE VERDICT

The Trojans fans likely expect another easy win and that sounds inaccurate, because this Big Ten team has productive talent on both sides of the ball.

There has been plenty of public money coming in on USC, but the sharps have been backing Penn State and keeping the line from moving too far.

We think that USC will win the game, but that the cover is questionable with our projected margin between 7-11 points.

The Pick :

Penn State 20-28 Southern Cal

HANDICAP BETTING :

We favour PENN STATE with the handicap now set at +10.

If you're betting at other sportsbooks and a handicap of -8.5 then that line is right on our projected score.