USA v Brazil
Football: International, FIFA Confederations Cup
Sunday 28th June 2009 - Kickoff 19:30

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CONFEDERATIONS CUP FINAL

United States (FIFA Rank 14)

What a roller coaster ride it's been for the United States team, who were quite frankly very mediocre in their first two group games, losing 1-3 to Italy and 0-3 to Brazil and looking like it would be a depressing plane ride home straight after the final group game.

The knives were out for US coach Bob Bradley, but a 3-0 win over Egypt stayed the execution, and after a 2-0 win over Spain in the semi-finals there has been a massive re-evalulation of this US team.

Honestly, I don't know what to think. Before this tournament I rated the US side the best team outside UEFA and COMNEBOL, but after two heavy defeats, it was clear that the US lack quality on the ball and a defined gameplan to breakdown other sides when going forward.

What this United States side do offer is pace, athleticism, a huge work-ethic and, despite a seemingly bombastic press corps and fan base who have gone over the top after the win over Spain, that is enough to win football matches at any level.

In fact the United States remind me of England 4-6 years ago (right down to the over optimistic fans). Good - but not as good as the press wants them to be. Is that damning them with faint praise?

Brazil (FIFA Rank 5)

Brazil have played four games in this Confederations and won them all, but Brazil are judged by tougher guidelines than other sides, and only two of the performances can be considered satisfactory - the 3-0 wins over both United States and Italy.

The 4-3 win over Egypt was sloppy and defensively lazy, while the late, late 1-0 win over South Africa was such a laid back performance that it seemed like the entire Brazilian squad had punted on a 0-0 scoreline until Daniel Alves popped up with the winner from an 88th minute free-kick.

Dunga's selection of players for this compeitition has been criticised back in Brazil for lacking the stars and the big names. He'd better make sure that his side are up for this match.

Brazil's win over South Africa was their 200th victory in FIFA competitions - and the South American giants have a win rate of 65% in competitive tournaments - staggering stuff that underlines why despite the FIFA rankings Brazil are considered the benchmark standard in world football.

Possible Teams :

United States
Howard
Spector, Onyewu, DeMerit, Bocanegra
Dempsey, Feilhaber, Clark, Donovan
Davies, Altidore

Brazil
Julio Caesar
Maicon, Luisão, Lucio,Santos
Melo, Silva
Ramires, Kaka, Robinho
Fabiano

Head to Head

These countries have met 14 times at senior level, and Brazil have won 13 of the clashes - including that 3-0 victory in the group stages of this tournament.

The United States beat Brazil 1-0 on a 1998 CONCACAF Gold Cup match - a result that understandably created headlines in the US at the time.

Imagine what a win in this match would do?!

The Betting Verdict

The United States will compete hard, and they can cause an upset if Brazil turn up expecting this to be a formality or an easy game, but history does show that Brazil have a significant edge.

Brazil are not consistant, and anyone who watched their laboured efforts against South Africa will not want a bar of the 4/9 (1.44) price on the South American's in this final.

But by the same token the United States are not a complete side, as evidenced by their varied results so far. Sometimes the US compete and keep a clean sheet - other times the States defence opens up and they concede three goals.

Overall, I favour Brazil to win - but the bookmaker prices are pretty close to my fair value calculations for all three results.

The Pick :

United States 1-2 Brazil (maybe 0-1)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

United States 15% - Draw 20% - Brazil 65%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

BRAZIL should win.