Geelong Cats v Collingwood Magpies
AFL : Australia, AFL Premiership 2009
Saturday, 19th September 2009
Kickoff 7:30 pm local time (10:30 am BST)

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WOW! What a cracker this promises to be and I will be fortunate enough to be seated high in the stands of the best stadium in the world amongst 100,000 other roaring fans.

Geelong Cats (2nd) 18-4

The Cats look like they did just enough to account for the Dogs in the first week of the finals.

Geelong had the gears to change if needed to. Steve Johnson is a huge inclusion and will offer another avenue to goal.

Max Rooke who has a quad injury will be probably given until match day to prove his fitness, and his toughness around the ground will certainly rough up a few young Pies if he plays.

There will be a selection headache for coach Mark Thompson who may need to drop a small forward for Steve Johnson, but it is definitely the sort of selection headache you would prefer.

I expect to see the Geelong midfield demonstrate their class in this match with the likes of Ablett, Selwood, Corey and Bartel, they form arguably the best midfield in the league.

The experienced Geelong defence led by Scarlett and Harley should hold the Pies to a modest score.

Collingwood Magpies (4th) 15-7

The Magpies young brigade performed so well last week and it is likely that a couple of them may miss because Rocca and possibly Pendlebury could come back in.

Pendlebury is a huge question mark after having fractured his fibula lees than 2 weeks ago. He is important but they won't be too hasty in risking him because losing a man early always hurts the teams rotations off the interchange bench.

The team really struggled to score against Adelaide for 2.5 quarters and the Geelong defence will make it similarly difficult.

The likes of Cloke, Davis and Anthony will need to score multiple goals and scoring contributions will be required from Dick, Medhurst, Thomas and some other midfielders.

Recent Head to Head

09-Apr-2009 Geelong (18.14) 122 beat Collingwood (13.17) 95
23-May-2008 Geelong (7.6) 48 lost to Collingwood (20.14) 134
21-Sep-2007 Geelong (13.14) 92 beat Collingwood (13.9) 87
14-Jul-2007 Geelong (11.14) 80 beat Collingwood (9.10) 64

All four games were played at the M.C.G.

The Betting Verdict

Geelong is my team and they are still the best side overall and most of this this year has been indicative of this.

The simple way to describe this fixture is Geelong's best will NEARLY always beat Collinwood's best. The question is whether the best or near best Geelong shows up.

I think Geelong will show up strong and they can account for the Pies.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the Cats to win by Under 39.5 pts at 2.25