New Zealand v Bahrain
Football : World Cup Playoff: Asia / Oceania
Saturday, 14th November 2009 - 8pm local / 9am UK

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New Zealand

New Zealand have benefited from Australia's departure from the Oceania Zone to take command of FIFAs' smallest and weakest confederation, and slowly the standard of New Zealand's age-grade sides are improving with repeated appearances in Final's tournaments.

New Zealand strolled through the Oceania Group, winning the first five games with a with a 14:3 goal difference, before losing the final "home" game against Fiji, which was postponed and then rescheduled to be played in Fiji after a Visa problem for a player who was a relative of Fiji's miliary government - politics and sport eh?

IN order to avoid a fine, and/or worse from FIFA, New Zealand agreed to the venue change and played the meaningless final game with a side of domestically based semi-pro players.

New Zealand's top side is made up of journeymen European professionals, generally playing one rung down from top flight football, and a smattering of Australian A-League players from The Wellington Phoenix, and other clubs.

The exception to this being Ryan Nelsen, who is captain of Blackburn Rovers, and he will lead the New Zealand side in what will be his final chance to make the World Cup finals.

Bahrain

Bahrain are once again on the threshold of reaching the World Cup Finals for the first time, narrowly missed out on reaching Germany 2006 when they lost a similar two-legged encounter with Trinidad and Tobago.

Bahrain's path to this playoff has been typified by low scoring matches, and mediocre performances. In Round 3, Bahrain finished 2nd behind Japan, with a 3-1-2 record - ahead of Oman (FIFA rank 79) and Thailand (110).

In the final round, Bahrain could not match either Japan or Australia (losing all four games) but edged past Qatar (94) and Uzibekistan (80) to finish 3rd.

In the Asia playoff against Saudi Arabia, Bahrain were definately inferior to the Saudi side, but at 1-1 were going through on away goals, when they suddenly looked to be eliminated when Saudi Arabia went ahead 2-1 in the 90th minute.

But Bahrain threw caution to the wind in injury time, finally going forward, and somehow scored with almost the last kick of the match - to draw the game and go through on away goals.

(see this YouTube video of the final 4 minutes - amazing emotions!)

Huge celebrations in Bahrain, but also in New Zealand too, as the talented Saudi Arabia side were much the better side throughout the game.

Bahrain have decided to "warm-up" this week in Sydney, Australia which might not be a smart move. New Zealand is hardly a dangerous destination - but it does have a markedly colder climate than Bahrain - or Australia - and if Wellington's famous winds are blowing then Bahrain is in for a nasty shock when they fly in.

Team Strength and Ratings

The FIFA rankings have Bahrain in 61st spot and New Zealand in 83rd spot, but frankly at this level the FIFA rankings are extremely flawed especially across confederations.

This is because the ratings give bonuses for World Cup games (2.5x points) and expect a minimum of five games a year, and so inactive teams slide down the scale quickly.

To underline this, last month New Zealand leapt 17 places in the rankings (from 100) on the strength of the draw in Bahrain, and a 3-1 win over Jordan - and Bahrain also went up 3 places ... just because both sides were active.

I've read at some places that is game is considered a mismatch - it's not. FIFA are to be congratulated in re-organising the playoffs so that Oceania meet Asia (rather than a South American side) as it will provide a competitive matchup.

(of course I also think that Oceania should be folded into a sub-region of the Asia confederation - but that's another story).

Overall, I do have Bahrain as about 1/4 of a goal stronger if the two sides were to meet on a neutral venue, but with home advantage it means I have New Zealand about 1/4 of a goal stronger for the second match.

Head to head

These sides met for the firsttime last month, drawing 0-0 in Bahrain, with the home side having most of the possession, but only really creating chances late in the second half.

Bahrain could have won 1-0 or 2-0 without complaints, but all through the qualifying campaign quals have been hard to come by.

Looking further afield, Bahrain played Australia (FIFA rank 24) twice in qualifying, losing 0-1 (h) and 0-2 (a). Australia play a similar physical style to New Zealand - and if the Kiwi's and the Aussies played then I'd expect similar winning margins for Australia.

Conversely, New Zealand played Iraq (93) recently in the Confederations Cup in South Africa and drew 0-0. Again this is similar to the result I'd expect to see Bahrain acheive.

Team News

Bahrain's influential striker Alaa Hubail has torn the cruciate ligaments in his right knee and will not play.

The Betting Verdict

The bookmakers have the two sides as quite even, with New Zealand a touch more likely to win the game, but Bahrain favoured to go through to the finals because a score draw would be enough for Bahraini qualification.

With everything so tight, I do not expect an open game, despite the fact that New Zealand claim to be playing a 3-4-3 formation for this game to chase goals.

We saw the same "3-4-3" attempted in Bahrain, and frankly it looked pretty much like a 3-6-1 to me, with New Zealand exposed at the back, and very reluctant to leave players forward.

New Zealand coach Ricki Herbert also manages the local A-League side Wellington Phoenix, who play at this ground, and I'm tempted to look at his club tactics and results in forecasting a result.

The Phoenix have drawn 7 of their last 10 games, and typically Herbert has cost the Phoenix side points by attempting to protect a 1-goal lead, and not having the defensive nous and systems in place to achieve it.

(Dad's Army style : Don't PANIC Captain Mannering comes to mind)

Coupled with Bahrain's own defensive mindset, only really going out to attack when elimination threatens, thne I think I can see a likely pattern to this game.

So I'm going to go for a scoring draw, with New Zealand being more attacking at home and scoring first, and late on conceding a goal to Bahrain, and then not being able to force a winner.

To give Kiwi fans hope - maybe Ryan Nelsen can change that defensive pattern - certainly the defending in the 0-0 draw in Bahrain does give hope - and we could see a famous 1-0 win ...

But the draw is at least as likely - and pays a better price.

The Pick :

New Zealand 1-1 Bahrain (or 0-0)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

New Zealand 35% - Draw 35% - Bahrain 30%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

The DRAW is the 90 minute result bet.

However, my preferred bet will be on a RED CARD being shown.

Consider that this game has several tasty ingredients : such as technically tricky middle east players (who can get upset and lash out), and physically strong New Zealand players playing in a style very much like League One football.

Mix in a very tense and mentally tough occasion, and add-in a reportedly card happy Uruguayian referee, and this game has all the hall-marks of a sending off occuring.

Prices should be available at 3/1 (4.00) when finally available - I'll post when I find an online bookmaker offering the bet!
;-)