Debrecen VSC v Liverpool
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 24th November 2009 - Kickoff 19:45

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Debrecen (Hungary) 4th 0-0-4 5:14

Debrecen have benefitted from UEFA's new "Champions Stream" for qualification which allowed the Hungarian champions to avoid any teams from the big leagues in qualification.

Kalmar, Levadia Tallinn and Levski Sofia were all beaten over two legs as Debrecen qualified for the group stages for the first time, but the draw was not kind with three big teams match as opponents.

So far Lyon, Fiorentina and Liverpool have had too much pace, and to much talent for Debrecen, although the Hungarian side are defiantely showing signs of learning from this experience.

The Debrecen manager Andras Herzog said : "We've learned a lot from our performances in this competition and are still learning. We know we can't lose the ball without facing the consequences and, unlike in the Hungarian league, we can't leave our defensive line open."

Debrecen Team News :
Out : Róbert Feczesin (knee), Leandro (ligament damage),

Liverpool (England) 3rd 1-1-2 3:5

Liverpool's qualification hopes rest on getting the "right" result in the Fiorentina v Lyon game but its also essential that Liverpool win here - undelined by Liverpool manager Rafael Benitez saying "For us it is simple : we must go out and win".

This situation is not unknown for Liverpool in 2007/08 Liverpool also started slowly in the Champions League, but the Reds won their last three group games to progress to the knockout stage.

So although it's not looking easy for Liverpool right now - I do expect to see a fully focused effort to achive the victory in this match.

Liverpool Team News :
Out : Martin Kelly (ankle), Fernando Torres (adductor), Albert Riera (hamstring) Ryan Babel (ankle)
Doubtful : Glen Johnson (calf)

The Betting Verdict

Anything other than a Liverpool win would be a HUGE shock and I expected to see prices of just 1.10 to 1.15.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Debrecen 1-3 Liverpool

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Debrecen 3% - Draw 8% - Liverpool 89%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I expect LIVERPOOL to win - and frankly that price is better than fair value.