Quarter Four

The final quarter of the draw is the most exciting for me, with Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray most likely to meet in the Quarter finals but they both may have a few tricky games along the way.

Starting at the top and Murray, the British number one should breeze past Anderson before he faces the tricky Marc Gicquel. Gicquel on his day can be a handful but considering he is 2-15 life time v a top 10 player it’s safe to assume Andy will win.

Murray’s potential opponent in the third round is going to be Melzer. Melzer must beat Serra first and then most likely an out of sorts Nieminen. The Austrian has just played Serra this week in Brisbane and went down in straight sets, however I’m going to stick with Melzer, not only is he the better player but I’m hopeful that he’s learnt a lot from that game. Regardless of if he does or doesn’t beat Serra, Murray is a huge favourite to beat all of them and should safely make it to the last 16.

In the next section of this quarter the huge 6’9 John Isner is a threat. Isner will be buzzing following his win in Aukland and should beat the declining Seppi and then possibly Lu, both players will struggle to break Isner over 5 sets. Isner should then face Monfils in the last 32, the Frenchman who is carrying a few niggling injuries will dispose of the local boy Ebden and then possibly Koellerer of Austria. This sets up nicely the Isner encounter.

I fancy Isner to beat the Frenchman, Isner’s game is perfect for hard courts with that booming service game of his. He also leads the h2h 2-1 with all 3 meetings being on a hard court and in the last encounter Isner was ranked 147 in the world and defeated Monfils who was ranked 9! Isner is playing the tennis of his life at the moment and must be backed given the surface and the recent form.

Murray – Isner for me all comes down to Isner’s serving on the day. Murray is a top 3 returner in the men’s game and will put tons of pressure on the American whilst Isner doesn’t return that great, he throws in a lot of slices and looks to come in early. Against most opponents this will work but against Murray it won’t, give Andy Murray a target at the net and he will pick you off all day. Murray will beat Isner unless the American serves at 70% plus throughout the match and even then it may not be enough.

In the next section, we have an intriguing opening round tie between Karlovic and Stepanek, both serve and volley and both don’t really return well. Given that Stepanek is 3-0 versus the huge serving Croatian I’ll back him to advance, he clearly is able to pick Karlovic’s serve whilst Karlovic’s return game just isn’t good enough.

Fish and Ljubicic should also win their first round ties to face off in the second round. The Croatian is in decline whilst Fish has been injured for a long time, however given that Fish recently made the final in Sydney I fancy him to progress. Stepanek will face Frenchman Benneteau in a game that will see Radek as the favourite, with the two previous matches on a hard going to the Czech player.

Stepanek should then face Fish another guy he has a good record over 3-0, and like the round before I like Stepanek despite how well Fish has been playing. When someone has missed soo many games like Mardy has eventually his body will need to rest, the run in Sydney was great but then having to win two rounds of 5 set tennis before a game against a guy he has never beat will mean the end of the road for Fish.

The bottom section of this quarter involves current champion Nadal. Nadal has straight forward matches with Luczak and Mayer in the first two rounds and his tournament really starts in the third round when he should face Kohlschreiber. The German should see off Zeballos and Odesnik in the first two rounds to set up the Nadal tie. The hard hitter Kohlschreiber has taken a few sets off Nadal in the past but the bottom line is Nadal is 5-0 against him with 2 games on hard, Nadal won’t lose to Kohlschreiber.

Nadal is then to face Stepanek, unlike the Czech’s earlier round opponents he does not have a winning record over Nadal. Nadal is 4-0 v Stepanek, however they have never faced off on a hard court but when you think Stepanek is a serve and volley player this Is perfect for Nadal, he will thrive having targets with his opponent at the net very similar to the Isner – Murray potential encounter. How good is a Nadal v a big server? 20 wins and 0 defeats in the last year good! Nadal will win and face Murray for a place in the last 4.

Quarter 4- Quarter Final

The Murray – Nadal matchup - if it occurs = will be an epic. Rafa is 7-2 v Murray with a 3-1 margin on the hard stuff but every time they square off the games are of high quality and are very close.

Murray on a hard court has won 43 of his last 50 whilst Nadal has 41 wins in 50, both are exceptional players and this is really hard to call.

The last time they played a high pressure Slam tie was in the 2008 US Open semi final which Murray won in 4 tight sets, I think Murray is a better player now and can just edge out the defending champion to advance to the semis.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Most likely to win the quarter : Murray 2.50 at Betfred

Next best : Nadal evens at Betfair