Preston North End v Chelsea
Football: England, FA Cup 2009/2010
Saturday, 23rd January 2010 - Kickoff 12:45

---

Preston North End

Last 5 games at Deepdale : W1-D3-L1 F5-A4

The Lilywhites welcome their new boss to Deepdale this Saturday as well as Premiership side and current cup holders Chelsea in this FA Cup fourth round tie. Darren Ferguson joined Preston on the 6th January but due to the recent adverse weather conditions this will be Ferguson’s first home game in charge at Deepdale as his side is looking to cause a major upset in this weekend’s early kick off.

Preston is a stable Championship side that has been into the playoffs several times in the last few years but has always just fallen short at the final hurdle. All the years of getting close may finally cost Preston despite starting the season well, Preston are now falling away and a relegation dog fight could be a possibility.

It could on the other hand go the other way as the table is so tight that they are 9 points away from 5th despite languishing in 17th place. However, I think unless they drastically sort out their form they will remain near the bottom, this side has one win in 11 games a record that at any level is of a relegation side.

Since taking charge Ferguson’s side has been beaten badly by Bristol City (4-2) away from home but in the previous round of the FA Cup they did hammer Colchester at Deepdale. Chelsea are light years ahead of Colchester in terms of quality so this North End side must raise their game, this is something that I think they will do. It’s a Cup game that no one gives them a chance of winning and with the pressure of the league form off their shoulders we may see Preston really giving Chelsea a game.

When looking at the recent results it’s easy to see how Preston are so low in the table, in 11 home games they only have 4 wins but if there is a positive only 2 games have ended in defeat. They did beat Colchester as I mentioned above in the Cup and then Plymouth in mid December, the last home win before that came in mid September. Can we say this side has turned itself around in its last 2 home games? I don’t think so but they will be playing with much better confidence now that the new manager is in charge.

Some stats that really stand out to me are the failed to score and opponents scores first stats. Preston has failed to score in 8 games this year which does not bode well against Chelsea a side that has scored in every game bar one this year. Maybe Preston can sneak a 0-0 and a replay at the Bridge? Well in them 8 games that they failed to score, in only 2 did the Lilywhites hold on to draw, although one of the games was against a talented West Brom.

In the opponent scores first statistic, the opposition has scored in 13 of Preston’s games and they only came back to win once! If Chelsea score first and it’s likely that they might, it’s going to be a hard road for Preston. As you can imagine being so low in the division, they have lost 9 of the 13 games but have managed to salvage a point in 3 games. Preston needs to score in this game to force a replay or even cause a shock win because it’s hard to see Chelsea being shut out.

The team news is that Preston will be without Paul Parry, Youl Mawene and Barry Nicholson who are all long term absentees. Mawene is the biggest loss, he is a key central defender and a leader on the field for this side, and he is basically the “John Terry” of Preston. The young winger Danny Mayor is pressing for another start after looking lively on his debut against Bristol City at the weekend.

The key player to look out for is the ex-Mackems and Celtic left winger Ross Wallace. I’ve seen him play a few times this year and is very talented, he will get a lot of the ball so expect the Chelsea full back to be busy all afternoon. I saw him score a delightful left footed free kick against Blackpool earlier in the season and his crossing if of a high level as well. At the moment he is the Lilywhites second top scorer in the league with 5 goals, the leading scorer is Mellor who like Jon Parkin will need the supply to get chances against this Chelsea defence. If Preston gets Wallace into the game and he has the beating of the Chelsea full back this side definitely can take something from the game.

Predicted Preston North End Lineup : Longergan, Davdidson, Collins, St.Ledger, Nolan, Chaplow, Sedgwick, Mayor, Wallace, Brown, Parkin.

Chelsea

Last 5 away games : W2-D2-L1 F9-A3

Ancelotti’s side come into this FA Cup tie in good form following a mini two game blip when the side drew back to back games at West Ham and Birmingham but three straight wins has put them back on the front foot beating Fulham, Watford and Sunderland in a combined score line of 14-3! Now they visit a tricky Deepdale to face a Preston side with nothing to lose in the FA Cup’s lunch time kick off.

This Chelsea side in recent away performances has been a little shaky, as mentioned above the side drew its last two away games and then lost the third away at Man City. The last away win for Chelsea came at Arsenal of all places in a game that the blues dominated from start to finish and despite winning the last three games at home Chelsea will want to get back to winning ways on the road as soon as possible and this game looks an ideal opportunity to do so.

I mentioned above that Preston concede the first goal in games more than they score it and as you can imagine Chelsea are the other way inclined, in 20 games the Blues have gone ahead in 13 games and have gone onto win 11 of these outscoring teams 38 to 7! Conversely if Preston do get ahead then this is a side that is very capable to coming back to take something from the game, in the 7 times Chelsea has conceded first they have only lost once and won 4 times. Now this analysis is based on Premiership teams of which are all better than Preston and the Blues shouldn’t fear Preston on Saturday.

A worry is that we don’t know the Chelsea line up. Against Watford (a fellow Championship side to Preston, in a similar league position) Carlo played a weakened line up with several stars rested. That game was at the end of the Christmas period, so Chelsea had just played a lot of games so it made sense to squad rotate. Recently the blues have just played one game in 2 weeks and are due to play once a week for a few more weeks which may suggest there is no need to rest players in the line up. So until Ancelotti’s press conference tomorrow we wont know a great deal about the line up but I think we will see a few changes most likely a team similar to this:

Predicted Chelsea Lineup : Hillario, Ivanovic, Terry, Alex, Zhirkov, Belletti, Lampard, Ballack, Sturridge, Anelka, Malouda.

The Betting Verdict

This will no doubt be a tough game for Chelsea, they know they are expected to win and all the pressure will be on them.

With a clear set of fixtures ahead with little congestion, a replay is not what the Blues want especially before February, a month that sees the resumption of the Champions League so winning this tie on Saturday will be the agenda.

If Chelsea goes behind I can see this being a 1-1 draw but I think the Blues will just edge in front and whilst it could be bumpy ride for a while, I’m going to back the Premiership side to edge this.

The Pick :

Preston 1-2 Chelsea

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Preston 10% - Draw 18% - Chelsea 72%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

The odds on Chelsea to win at around 1.30 is too small for me to take

HANDICAP BETTING :

If you must bet on this game, take a gamble on Chelsea to win by exactly 1 goal at 4.50 @ totesport