Bolton Wanderers v Burnley
Football: England, Premier League 2009/2010
Tuesday, 26th January 2010 - Kickoff 8pm

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Bolton (19th) Home : 2-4-5 16:23

Bolton beat Sheffield United in the FA Cup on the weekend to get their first win under ex-Burnley boss Owen Coyle. and are warm favourites to win this Lancashire derby.

But, there is still plenty for Bolton to do to prove that they're not one of the three bottom clubs - and for my money they didn't prove much against Arsenal.

Bolton were beaten 0-2 at home, and then after going 2-0 up at the Emirates Bolton conceded four goals in 60 minutes to lose 2-4 and limped home squealing about Arsenal being a bunch of bullies ... Arsenal?! FFS !!

Bolton Team News :
Bolton manager Owen Coyle has fitness concerns over several players ahead of the visit of his former club Burnley.

Mark Davies, Ricardo Gardner, Gavin McCann and Matt Taylor are all doubtful, but there could be a debut for on-loan midfielder Vladimir Weiss.

Doubtful : M Davies (ankle) McCann (ankle), Gardner (groin), Taylor (?)

Injured : Davis (knee), J O'Brien (knee),
Unavailable : Shittu (Africa Cup of Nations)

Burnley (15th) Away : 0-1-10 8:34

Mind you, Burnley's relatively lofty 15th spot is due almost entirely to the strength of the Clarets home performances at Turf Moor where the side have lost only once all season.

Away from home it's a totally different story, with 10 defeats in 11 games, including the last five games in a row, and all of them by multiple goal margins. (see form tables below)

Burnley suffered a cup upset at Reading and manager Brian Laws is still waiting for his first goal, let alone a win, since succeeding Coyle at Turf Moor. If Laws can engineer a first away victory of the season on Tuesday night he will become an instant fans' favourite.

However a loss would mean that Bolton jump above Burnley in the standings.

Burnley Team News :
France Under-21 striker Frederic Nimani is in Burnley's squad, having joined on loan from Monaco.

Leading goalscorer Steven Fletcher will return after missing the FA Cup defeat by Reading with a slight ankle problem.

Injured :Caldwell (groin)
Unavailable : Bikey (Africa Cup of Nations)

The Betting Verdict :

Burnley's away record does make this one look very much like a home win statistically, but Bolton's home form is hardly stellar with just 2 wins in 11 league games.

Additionally, the derby factor really does even this game up quite a bit, although it would still be a major shock if the visitors won.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Bolton 2-1 Burnley (or 1-1 draw)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Bolton 48% - Draw 35% - Burnley 17%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

So although the home is most likely - the prices mean that the best value punt is a shot at a DRAW.