Fulham v Portsmouth
Football: England, Premier League 2009/2010
Wednesday, 3rd February 2010 - Kickoff 8pm

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Fulham (11th) Home : 6-2-3 15:8

Fulham have been unremarkable this season, steady and quite consistant, and that marks a good level of progress under hte management of Roy Hodgson.

However, last weekends loss at home to Aston Villa was the Cottagers fifth defeat in a row, and that's starting to become a bit of a slump that Fulham need to arrest here.

The good news for Fulham fans (and punters) is that the defeat was Fulham's first home loss in 11 games, stretching back to last September, and so a home win is still a very likely result.

Fulham Team News :
Fulham loan signings Stefano Okaka and Nicky Shorey are both named in the squad for Wednesday's game against Portsmouth.

Dickson Etuhu has returned from the Africa Cup of Nations.

Injured : Dempsey (knee), Johnson (knee), Pantsil (knee), Konchesky (ankle)

Portsmouth (20th) Away : 1-2-8 5:18

Portsmouth are lurching from crisis to crisis, and the 0-2 loss to manchester City on the weekend marked Pompey's 8th defeat in 11 away games.

Portsmouth are now starting to sound like an old fashioned vaudeville joke - with good news/bad news coming together.

The good news is that Portsmouth will be able to pay the players this month - the bad news is that most of the funds to do that came from the sale of arguably Pompey's best player, as Younes Kabul was sold to Tottenham Hotspur.

As well as Kaboul, Asmir Begovic, David Nugent and Mike Williamson were the major players to depart Fratton Park during the transfer window although Portsmouth were boosted by the loan return of Jamie O'Hara to the club.

Portsmouth Team News :
Portsmouth manager Avram Grant may again make a host of changes following his side's defeat at Manchester City.

But David James is expected to continue in goal and Quincy Owusu-Abeyie could make his first start for the beleaguered club.

Doubtful : Belhadj, Kanu & Yebda (all returning from Africa Cup of Nations)

Injured : Brown (back), Diop (hamstring)

The Betting Verdict :

Portsmouth have only won once away all season, a 1-0 win at fellow strugglers Wolves, and have lost five of their last six road games.

Fulham have been struggling, but when they played Sunderland, Bolton and Blackburn is recent home games they won two and drew the third game - and that's significant as I have all three of those opponents rated about the same level as Portsmouth (920/930 in my stats).

So I have Fulham at about 2/3 likely to win and expected to see a price of 1.50 or so for the home victory - particularly given the recent departures from Fratton Park.

Instead we can get prices of 1.70+ on a Fulham win - and that has to be taken.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Fulham 1-0 Portsmouth

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Fulham 62% - Draw 27% - Portsmouth 11%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take FULHAM to win at any price above 1.70.