Liverpool v Everton
Football: England, Premier League 2009/2010
Saturday, 6th February 2010 - Kickoff 12:45pm

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Liverpool (5th) Home : 8-2-2 30:11

Liverpool have ironed things out at the back at last and the Reds have only conceded one goal in their last six league games as the ponits have started to flow again.

Rafa Benitez now needs to find more goal production at the other end of the field with Fernando Torres still missing from the line-up, and the available replacements clearly of lessor calibre.

Liverpool Team News :
Liverpool defender Fabio Aurelio could be back in contention after recovering from a calf injury picked up at Stoke last month.

Fernando Torres and Glen Johnson remain sidelined by knee problems, while Yossi Benayoun is out with a rib injury.

Doubtful : Aurelio (calf)
Injured : Benayoun (broken rib), Johnson (knee), Torres (knee)

Everton (9th) Away : 3-3-5 15:19

Everton have not lost a Premier League game since the corresponding fixture at Goodison at the end of November and have won their last three and four of their last five.

Injuries developed during the pre-Christmas period when Everton were taking part in the Europa League as well as domestic duties but since Christmas Everton's revival has been significant and seen them climb into the top half of the table.

Everton Team News :
Everton duo Yakubu and Joseph Yobo are available after returning from Africa Cup of Nations duty in Angola.

Mikel Arteta may play after overcoming a groin strain, while Phil Jagielka and Tony Hibbert are nearing returns.

Doubtful : Arteta (groin)
Injured : Gosling (hamstring), Hibbert (groin), Jagielka (knee)

Head to Head

The head to head is clearly significant in a derby game, and while Liverpool do have the edge at Anfield with a 3-3-0 record in the last six clashes those three draws are significant from a betting value point of view.

You have to go back 10 years to find the last Everton league win at Anfield, a 1-0 success in September 1999, and since then there have been four Liverpool wins, and five draws.

The Betting Verdict :

The home win for Liverpool is the most likely result, but unless you can find someone (like an Everton supporting mate) who is going to give you a price of better than even money (2.00+) it's not a good bet over the longer term.

Instead, it's better to recognise the special nature of the merseyside derby game, and take the draw which seems to happen on a fairly regular basis.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Liverpool 1-1 Everton

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Liverpool 50% - Draw 38% - Everton 12%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the DRAW at a good price.