Tennis
2010-02-25 - Ivan Ljubicic vs Novak Djokovic
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis: United Arab Emirates, ATP Dubai, Singles
Thursday 25th February 2010 - Start 15:00
Preview
Ivan Ljubicic caused one of the shocks of the tournament when beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in straight sets, but the victory must be put into context after Tsonga complained of feeling ill after his recent arrival from France.
Ljubicic is coming to the end of his career, but can still prove to be a danger to anyone on his day. He is still ranked as the World Number 26 although his start to this season has been disappointing with early exits in tournaments over the last 3 weeks.
It was the hard courts where the big serving Croatian caused a lot of his damage during the era of him reaching World Number 4 but since 2008 he has only compiled a 27-22 record on those courts. He will also be well aware that he has a lot of points to defend in 2 weeks time at Indian Wells where he reached the Quarter Finals last season.
Ljubicic has beaten Jan Hernych in 3 sets and Tsonga in straights so far this week which improves his record to 14-5 here in Dubai.
Novak Djokovic was outplayed for a set and a half to fellow countryman Victor Troicki yesterday but managed to get through in the end. Djokovic complained about the heat and indicated he preferred an evening start, and his wish has been granted for this Quarter Final.
The Serb is the defending Champion here and would have been satisfied with seeing Andy Murray fall out in the 2nd round as the Scot was the closest challenger to Djokovic's World Number 2 ranking. This is the 3rd straight Quarter Final he has reached this season and he will hope to defend the batch of points he has over the next month or so.
Djokovic is an all court player, with winning records on all the surfaces, but the hard courts have been the most kind to him. He is 76-16 on the surface since 2008 and will feel he has a real chance to make the Final after seeing the other seeded players, Tsonga and Davydenko, crash out from his half of the draw.
He has beaten Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Troicki this week.
Head to Head
These two have met 5 times, with Djokovic leading 4-1 in the head to head. Djokovic has won the last 4 meetings, winning 9 sets to 0.
The last 2 matches have both been on hard courts, their last meeting coming in Australia last season. On that occasion Djokovic won comfortably 6-3, 6-1, 6-3.
Prediction
Ivan Ljubicic has had some bad results this season although he is a danger when playing at the top of his game. The key change in his game has been the gradual decline of his backhand, once a real potent weapon for him. The serve is also not as effective as previously and he does give his opponents more and more opportunities these days.
Novak Djokovic sneaked through the last round after playing poorly for much of the match. He will be grateful to start the evening session and I think this will give him the edge. The Serb has faced a lot of criticism for being the World Number 2, many pundits believing it is a false position after recent struggles in Grand Slam events.
I think Djokovic will put in a performance this time against a player he matches up well with. I think he will cover the handicap set.
Djokovic win 6-3, 6-3
The Pick :
Novak Djokovic win 6-3, 6-3
BEST BETTING TIP :
Novak Djokovic WIN
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games @ 2.1 (Bet365)
