Arsenal V FC Porto
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Tuesday 9th March 2010 – Kickoff 7:45pm

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In 9 previous attempts, Arsenal have managed to overturn a Champions League first leg deficit only once.

Arsenal (England)

Arsenal warmed up with a 3-1 win over Burnley on Saturday. The performance wasn’t ideal with in-form Bendtner having a shocker, missing a plethora of chances. The comforting thing is, this Arsenal side are now grinding out win after win, indeed 4 on the trot in the league, and they are doing so without playing especially well, so often referred to as the mark of a great team.

Sadly, Fabregas left the game at Burnley with hamstring tightness, and will not be risked here. Without their captain and engine, Nasri will once again be utilised as the creative spark in midfield. His sublime pass that led to Cesc’s opener on Saturday brought back memories of Bergkamp, and it is his vision and ability that Arsenal will rely on to provide the game changing pass that opens Porto.

Cesc’s pace and touch can and will be replaced by those of Arshavin and Walcott, and Bendtner will surely get on the scoresheet to atone for Saturday. The Great Dane, who cannot be faulted for his work-rate, could have scored two hat-tricks himself, but bizarrely missed everytime, no doubt having secured himself gold, silver and bronze in the Miss of the Season competition! I’m putting it down to Saturday being “one of those days”. Everton’s Yakubu knows what I’m talking about.

Arsenal are still priced as favourites to progress to the quarter finals, due to the crucial away goal secured by Campbell in the first leg. Indeed, had it not been for the two clangers by Fabianski, Arsenal would surely have come away from Portugal with a win. Thankfully, Almunia will start tonight. In front of him, will be the solid pair of Campbell and Vermaelen. Song is back too, as his suspension only applies to domestic games.

This season, Arsenal have dominated teams at the Emirates, Manchester United and Chelsea being the only exceptions. Porto left here only last year with their faces and bottoms bright red following a 4-0 spanking. Although none of the goal-scorers from that night feature in this game, this team is loaded with talent.

After watching them create a dozen chances in the 2nd half without Cesc, I am confident they will do so again in a game they have to win. Eduardo came close on the weekend and is always a threat, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see a screamer from Diaby or perhaps even another Campbell header. Porto will have to score at least 2 to have a chance and I don’t see that happening. Bendtner laughed at the kind of day he was having on Saturday. The pink shoe will be on the other foot tonight.

FC Porto (Portugal)

Let’s face it, Porto were very fortunate to have won the first game. Their opener came from a shot across goal being turned in by Fabianski. As for the winner, the referee probably thought quicker than most in the Porto side when he sprinted back to quickly get the ball off the Arsenal keeper to facilitate a quick free kick.

The one time champions of Europe didn’t have the best tune up for this game, having trailed 0-2 at home and requiring two late goals to claim a solitary, unconvincing point against Olhanense, a side sitting second from bottom in their domestic league. Now, they must come to London, where they have lost on their previous 6 visits, and try to protect their slender one goal advantage. But clearly, Porto’s away form does not beget confidence. They have won only 4 of their 10 domestic away games and, as pointed out before, have recent memories of Emirates that are the thing of footballing nightmares.

The only slim hope left for Porto, is that they do have the ability of conjuring up a spectacular performance when you least expect it, the 2-2 draw at Old Trafford last year being the best example. Arsenal have already taken their eye off the ball in an encounter with Porto, so perhaps it’s too much to hope for the same thing happening again under such pressured circumstances.

The Betting Verdict :

With Arsenal knowing they have to score, Porto’s defence will get hammered from the get go, and I’ve no doubt will eventually get Bendtnered out of shape.

With a first half goal and lead, Arsenal will be in the drivers seat, and Porto will then need to push forward, leaving them open at the back for Arshavin or Theo Walcott to finish off.

The Statistics :

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Arsenal to win at 1.70 (Pinnacle) - main bet

Or consider Bendtner to score at 2.60 (PaddyPower)

HANDICAP BETTING :

I'm on Arsenal (AH -1) at 2.20 (Bet365)