Real Madrid V Olympique Lyon
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Wednesday 10th March 2010 – Kickoff 7:45pm

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The Spanish giants spent hundreds of millions during the summer, assembling a starstudded new squad of Galacticos. They drew a blank in France however and now must overturn the one goal deficit, the task made trickier by the fact there is no away goal advantage.

Real Madrid are still priced as favourites to progress. I strongly disagree.

Real Madrid (Spain

It seems many are expecting Real to turn in another one of their attacking masterclasses en route to an obliteration of Lyon’s first leg lead. To all those impressed, rightly, by Madrid’s recent goalscoring exploits, led by Ronaldo, I would point out the first half of their last home game, against Sevilla. Real, despite bossing the first 45 minutes, still managed to get punished at the back and found themselves 2-0 down and staring down the barrel of defeat. Yes, they did come back to win 3-2 in injury time, but Lyon aren’t Sevilla.

Madrid have not reached the quarters since 2004, and despite the money that has been spent, I still think they are going to get dumped out by what is clearly a very stubborn French side.

Manager Pelligrini will have Casillas fit to play in goal on Wednesday. The keeper got beaten by an absolute peach from Makoun 30 yards out in the first leg. This match will see his defence stretched even further as his side go looking for the goals they require. I don’t envy the poor guy as there is no way he keeps a good counter attacking side out for the whole 90 minutes.

Ronaldo, Kaka, Higuain, Ramos will all be in the line-up, looking to score their way into the quarters. With no away goal, they will need to score at least 2 against Lyon, and should the French side get an away goal of their own, Madrid will then be required to score 3 or 4! And while there is no doubt Madrid are more than capable of scoring that in a single half of football, the commitment of men forward will leave them wide open at the back and Lyon can and will punish them every time that happens.

Olympique Lyon (France)

The protection of a mere one goal lead is difficult when playing away against a side that is loaded with attacking talent. But consider this, Lyon have not conceded a goal in 620 minutes, spanning all competitions. That is 7 whole games, and no one has scored against them.

Keeper Lloris deserves much of the credit for this, but the fact remains Lyon are a highly disciplined side that are very, very tight at the back and defend excellently, although always threatening to break forward in numbers and pace to hit teams on the counter-attack. Both Bordeaux and Lyon have this tactic mastered better than any of the teams remaining in the competition. Madrid might have had success over the French in beating Marseille here, but Lyon are a different cup of tea.

Having said that, I really do believe the normally infallible defence of Lyon will surely get breached over the 90 minutes. Madrid are brimming, nay, overflowing with far too much talent to be shut out at home. But that is not where my focus is in this game.

Manager Claude Puel is clearly aiming to get an away goal to present Madrid with a mountain to climb. Over the weekend, he rested both Lopez and Delgado, so as to keep the attack fresh for the visit to Spain. They ending up drawing the game with Boulogne, but with fresh dangerous strikers here, they are a very real threat.

The Betting Verdict :

All eyes will be on the Madrid forward line, but the game will be decided by how well they can defend the counter-attack from Lyon, a situation that is bound to arise what the need to overcommit men forward to get the goals required by the Spaniards.

Arsenal were priced at 9/1 outsiders here a few years ago, and they came away with a win. At exactly the same odds, you simply must Lyon to do the same.

The Statistics :

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Both teams to score @ 1.90 (Bet365) - main bet

Consider a couple of value bets :
- Lyon to score 2 or more goals @ 4.50 (PaddyPower)
- Lyon to win @ 10.00 (Pinnacle)


Already recommended (from the 1st leg):
- Lyon to qualify @ 4.50+ (Most books) (Let the bet ride!)

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Lyon AH (+1.5) @ 2.10 (Pinnacle)