Romanian League
2010-03-17 - Dinamo Bucuresti vs Steaua Bucuresti
A Sports Betting Pick by ROZsolt
Football: Romania Liga 1
“Stefan cel Mare” stadium, Bucharest
Wednesday 17 March 2010, Kickoff: 20:30 GMT +2
Preview :
“The Great Derby” is the most important match in Romanian club football, these two teams together have a number of 41 titles, 4 times more than all the teams that are involved in this year’s championship.
In the communist period, until 1989, FC Steaua had support from the Ministry of Defence while Dinamo was supported by the Ministry of Police. So in some way, it's Army vs. Police. Steaua had the support of the Ceausescu family as well.
Dinamo leads the statistics, in 121 clashes the “red dogs” have won 42 times, 45 games ended in a draw, Steaua winning the difference of 34 games. They are very balanced considering the goals scored, Dinamo is leading by a 2 goal difference, with 162 goals scored so far.
First match: 21 November 1948 Dinamo 1-0 Steaua
Highest margin: 0-5 for Steaua in 1998
Last victory of Steaua in “Stefan cel Mare”: 1-0 in August 22, 2004.
Mihai Stoichita, coached both teams in his career, currently his is with Steaua.
Gabriel Bostina (Dinamo) played the most derbies from the players who will show up tomorrow, a total of 13 games (10 in Steaua’s jersey).
Analysis :
Dinamo Bucuresti : 6th W9-D8-L4 27-17 35pts
Steaua Bucuresti : 2nd W11-D6-L4 30-20 39pts
The derby started with the last whistle of the last stage, the two owners of the clubs attacking each other in press in the last few days. Steaua played Friday against Otelul (1-0) while Dinamo travelled to Cluj (2-2) in a match played Saturday. Steaua had a day plus to recover after last stage.
In the first game between them, in 2009 Steaua lost in front of their own crowd, 0-1 after one of the most boring derby’s of the last few years, in which Steaua had a mediocre performance.
Every parameter so far indicates Dinamo as favorites, with the exception of one, which might be decisive: efficacy.
Analyzing the compartments, in defense Steaua had superiority in the first part of the season, but after the transfers of their best defenders (Goian, Ghionea and Rada) this compartment showed a lot of insecurity, having four stoppers who doesn’t know each other and never played together before.
Dinamo, even if they lost Tamas (who moved to WBA) was quite consistent in defense, finding in Grigore an excellent replacement but the young defender suffered a serious injury during last game and he will miss for at least 6 weeks. This is an important loss, in these conditions the couple of defenders will probably be Goian and Moti.
Dinamo leads the attacking compartment, even if they scored just 27 goals, 3 less than Steaua they created an average of 5 goal opportunities per match, having an average of 14.8 shots on goal, while Steaua created 4.5 goal opportunities and had an average of 12.6 shots on goal.
Both teams conceded 2 goals from free-kicks since the second part of the championship began, but Dinamo scored 3 goals from them, while Steaua just 1.
Steaua scored 4 goals from their total of 5 in the beginning of the games, but in the first part of the championship they scored 9 goals in the interval of 76-90 minutes. From the total of 20 goals conceded, 6 of them were in the 16-30 min interval.
Dinamo has a more balanced distribution of goals scored and conceded during a match, but it can be observed that they use to concede more goals in second part of the games (10 from their total of 17).
The “dogs” are superior to Steaua considering the possession, and since they are playing at home, and will have their fanatic fans support, they will try to have the initiative. Their game is based on construction, starting from the defenders and continued by N’Doye who is their key player in the midfield. He receives most of the balls and distributes them in all directions.
Steaua has a more simple strategy than their rivals, they build with their wingers who send balls to the target-player in front, Greek international, Kapetanos (who is also the top-scorer of the league with 11 goals so far). He usually deviates the balls he receives in central zone to Bogdan Stancu or in side to Nicolita or Szekely.
Squads :
Dinamo has only one important absence, central-defender Grigore.
Dolha – Molinero, Goian, Moti, Pulhac – Torje, N’Doye, Bostina, Ad. Cristea – M. Niculae, An. Cristea
Steaua has two important players missing, central-defender Zhelev is suspended while Art. Karamyan is injured.
Zapata – Golanski, Baciu, Parpas, P Marin – Szekely, Ov. Petre, Plesan, Nicolita – Stancu, Kapetanos
Head to head :
01.11.2008 Liga 1 Etapa 13 Dinamo 1-1 Steaua
04.05.2008 Liga I Etapa 33 Dinamo 2-1 Steaua
20.09.2006 Liga I Etapa 08 Dinamo 1-0 Steaua
09.04.2006 Liga 1 Etapa 21 Dinamo 1-1 Steaua
22.08.2004 Liga 1 Etapa 04 Dinamo 0-1 Steaua
The Betting Verdict :
Both teams made wrong steps in the last few stages but in periods like this, with all the tension surrounding the game any result is possible.
Steaua however turned out a specialist in important matches, not losing any of their last 5 games against top 6 ranked competitors (2W3D).
Dinamo is playing their last card for a place that would allow them to attack the title, in case of a defeat, they are out of the battle.
I think this is a 1x match with the draw as a most likely result but if I would have to pick a winner that would be Dinamo even if I don’t think they will be capable to keep a clean sheet.
The Pick :
Dinamo Bucuresti 1-1 Steaua Bucuresti
