Barcelona v Stuttgart
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday 17th March 2010

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Barcelona

The Champions League holders are not playing with the same style, grace and unstoppable attacking power that swept aside all before them last year. Whether its complacency, fatigue, or simply the cyclical nature of form, the free flowing football of the blaugrana has been noticeably missing this season.

It appears that coach Pep Guardiola feels that certain players are not pulling their weight. Johan Cruyff, a man with great influence at FC Barcelona, came out publicly recently to criticise recent performances and, without naming names, implored some members of Barca's squad to "take a hard look in the mirror" to see "what they did and what they are doing". It is very difficult to believe that these comments were made without the coach’s approval…or even made at his request.

Barcelona looked under par in the first leg of this encounter in Stuttgart. They toiled to a 1-1 draw, and were lucky to escape without defeat. This result was not unexpected howeve., Barcelona have drawn the majority of their European away games of late. This also highlights one very important point: the importance of home advantage in these European competitions, even for the elite teams like Barcelona.

Barca have generally been in solid form domestically and did overcome Valencia 3-0 at the Camp Nou at the weekend, on paper an impressive result. However, although Barca did have the majority of the play and chances, the scoreline did flatter a little. Valencia are poor away from home this season and were playing with a significantly weakened side due to injury and suspension. In a game which Barca were expected to win comfortably, their goals came late in the game.

Barca have won 4 of their last 6 home Champions League games, which is a little below par for them. However they have beaten Inter, Dinamo Kiev, Lyon and Stuttgarts compatriots Bayern here in that time. Barcelona have won the last eight home matches against German opposition, and are looking for their third successive quarter final appearance.

Team news is sketchy at the time of writing but Carlos Puyol may be doubtful for the game having injured his back in the Valencia game. Seydou Keita looks likely to return from injury.

Stuttgart

Stuttgart’s domestic league standing is misleading. The german side fired coach Markus Babbel mid-season after a miserable run of form. Under new man Christian Gross, they are rejuvenated and were the league’s form side before defeat at Schalke on Friday night. This was not an unexpected defeat, as second tier sides like Stuttgart often fail to be completely “on it” before a big game like this one. Don’t read too much into that result, Stuttgart’s performance will improve immeasurably.

The one thing the German side will have going for them is that they will know exactly what their task is here. Having conceded the away goal, there is no “stick or twist” dilemma for them. They must win, or score at least two goals and draw. They may well try to withstand the Barca pressure and score on the break, but as time ticks on if they cant get that goal they will have to come out and play.

In the group stages of the Champions League, Stuttgart qualified from a poor group that contained Rangers, Sevilla and Urziceni Unirea. In the away games, Stuttgart are unbeaten having won in Glasgow and drawing the other two. The draw on Spanish soil, at a Seville side who are always strong at home, is a commendable result.

Stuttgart welcome back central defender Matthieu Delpierre from European suspension, while Hleb is expected to recover from a cold.

Head to head

Barcelona won the last meeting here, in December 2007, by three goals to one.

Betting Prediction

A Stuttgart victory here would be a massive shock, and there is no real evidence to suggest they can do it. Barca may not be in top form, but they have the away goal, and this means Stuttgart at some point will have to come out and play. On the massive expanse of turf that is the Camp Nou pitch, in front of a full house, it is unthinkable that Barca won’t be able to take advantage of this and score themselves.

Comparisons can be made to this stage of the competition last season. Barca also drew the first leg away from home 1-1, against a Lyon side that you would rate above Stuttgart. Barca won the home leg 5-2.

Barcelona to win then, but the prices are short. 1.25 may look like buying money, but remember that Barca have the away goal and don’t have to win, a 0-0 or 1-1 draw would see them qualify. If this was an English or Italian side this would be a real worry at these odds.

However, Barcelona at home are different. The home fans demand Barca win every game, in style. Grinding out a low scoring draw will not be tolerated. I’ve been in the Nou Camp and seen Barca win 4-2, and home fans storm out in furious protest at the performance. Barca will be expected to score… and then score again…and keep scoring until the final whistle.

1.25 is not a working mans price though. Another bet to take an interest in the game while watching on television, is Leo Messi to score anytime. Messi scores around 1/3 of all Barca’s goals. Therefore if Barca can get two or three goals here, which isn’t an unreasonable assumption, then Messi is likely to score one of these.

Probably the best player in the world at the moment, Messi has not been scoring as freely as usual in the Champions League with 2 goals from 6 games. There is nothing wrong with his domestic form however with 22 goals in 26 games, and he has an overall Champions League record of 1 goal every 2 games. At home, this average will be greater, and make the best price 1.8 available about the argentinian wonderkid worth a try.

Another bet to consider is Messi to score and Barcelona to win in a win/score double. This is available at best price of 2.1. While this bet is a likely winner, be aware that this isn’t a value selection. Fair price for this would be 2.25.

The Statistics :

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Barcelona 70% - DRaw 20% - Stuttgart 10%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Barcelona to win @ 1.25
Consider Lionel Messi to score anytime @ 1.8

HANDICAP BETTING :

Likely scorelines are 2-0 and 3-1, so Barcelona with a 1.5 goal advantage at 1.74 may be a little short but is worth considering. It is a dangerous game backing teams to beat big handicaps but Barcelona and Real Madrid are two teams that can clear this sort of handicap at home, as they do not generally sit back on slender leads.