Spanish La Liga
2010-04-03 - Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football : Spain : Primera Division
Saturday, 3rd April 2010 - Kickoff 7pm GMT (8pm Local)
Match Analysis :
Barcelona manager Pep Guardiola must have been pleased with the 2-2 draw against Arsenal despite losing a 2 goal advantage. Guardiola mention that it was his side best first half performance since he managed the team some 2 years ago.
Barcelona was dominated the entire first half but was kept at bay thanks to some good goal keeping by Almunia and some luck. Ibrahimovic who has often been criticize for not putting in performance in big games or in Europe scored twice in midweek.
Guardiola knows that his side cannot afford to drop points ahead of the “el-clasico” next week. With Barcelona having to travel to the Santiago Bernabeu, anything less than a win here would be disaster for the Catalans as Real Madrid are favourites going into the “el-clasico”
With Captain Puyol and Pique suspended for the midweek game, both Spanish International should start. Puyol should be moved into right back as Dani Alves is supended for this game. Gabriel Milito who came off the bench in midweek should partner Pique of defense. Apart from Alves, Iniesta is the only first team player that is out for Guardiola.
After some good performance and results, Bilbao manager Joaquin Caparros found his team lying on 6th position, 2 points behind Sevilla who are struggling at the moment. With Bilbao desperate for Champions League football next season, Caparros will definitely feel that his side will have to get something out of this game.
However, those good results came at home and not on the road. Bilbao have won 5 of their last 6 games at home but only managed 2 draws in their last 6 games on the road.
Caparros will have Fran Yeste back but he will still be without Iban Zubiaurru, Ion Velez, Aitor Ocio and Pablo Orbaiz.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Barcelona have paid out in 8 games from a possible 14 ( 58% winning rate), losing 6.
However from the 6 betting failures, 5 of them came against sides which Barcelona have given a handicap of 2 or more goals and Barcelona failed to win the game by 3 goals. The only betting loss on Barcelona with less than a 2 ball head start was against Villarreal when Barca drew 1-1.
Athletic Bilbao have almost a similar record with Barcelona on the handicap line. Bilbao have paid out in 7 out of their 15 (47 % winning rate) games on the road this season, drawing 1 and losing 7 on the handicap line.
THe Betting Verdict :
Pep Guardiola will definitely have half his eye on the midweek game against Arsenal and might rest a couple of players. However with both Arshavin and Fabregas out of that game, Guardiola might just afford to relax a little on that game and concentrate on the League for now as Real Madrid is breathing down their neck.
Barcelona are the 2nd best to Real Madrid at home, collecting 40 points from a possible 42 points this season and I do not expect an upset here today against a weaker Bilbao side on the road. Bilbao have found it difficult to score on the road scoring only 14 goals from 15 games.
With Barcelona averaging 2.7 goals a game and Bilbao averaging less than a goal a game, I expect Barcelona to win this by probably a 2 goal margin. With Bilbao scoring ratio so low, Barcelona should be good enough to keep them out from scoring.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Barcelona 2-0 or 3-0.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Barcelona to win the game ( Banker Bet)Alternatively, consider Barcelona to keep a clean sheet.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider trying Barcelona to cover the -1.75 head start.
