Slovakia v Paraguay
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group F
Sunday, 20th June 2010 - Kickoff 12:30 BST

---

Slovakia

Slovakia struggled to impose themselves upon New Zealand in the opening fixture, with manager Vladimir Weiss taking much of the blame in my notes by starting too defensively, and then opting to sit back on a 1-0 lead instead of taking the action to New Zealand .

Winston Reid's late, late equalizer for the Kiwis was a major blow to the Slovakian side's chances of progressing as it is definately dropped two points against the minnows of the group - and it could be decisive.

Slovakia are now up against Paraguay and really have little choice but to play more aggressively and attempt to take victory. A draw is of little use - as it would then require a final day miracle with Slovakia needing to get a better result against Italy than Paraguay manage against little New Zealand - an unlikely scenario.

Slovakia Team News :
Slovakia is likely to start Miroslav Stoch instead of Erik Jendrisek in midfield. The 20-year-old has recovered from a knee injury and will feature in the attacking department of the midfield.

This means that Stanislav Sestak will move from the midfield to the attack and will partner Robert Vittek upfront.

Probable Slovakia Lineup (4-4-2) :
Mucha
Zabavnik, Skrtel, Durica, Cech
Weiss, Strba, Hamsik, Stoch
Vittek, Sestak

Paraguay

Paraguay's opening 1-1 draw with Italy was well received back home, but although the South American side took the lead, they too suffered from a cautious approach and lost the initiative from the match.

Paraguay were reduced to defending for large periods, and conceded an equaliser after 63 minutes, and then were largely hanging on for the draw.

As outlined above, the first round fixtures do hand a perceived advantage to Paraguay, who would probably be quite happy to play a defensively based strategy, and look to counter-attack.

Paraguay Team News :
Coach Gerardo Martino will be without the injured Jonathan Santana. But striker Roque Santa Cruz is fit again and will come in to replace Aureliano Torres.

Probable Parguay Lineup (4-3-3) :
Villar
Bonet, Da Silva, Alcazar, Morel
Vera, Caceres, Riveros
Santa Cruz, Valdes, Lucas

THe Betting Verdict

The betting advice is tricky.

Instinctively, I do not think that there is much difference between Slovakia and Paraguay, and so the betting value should be in backing the European side somehow.

However, the group situation does force Slovakia to try and force the game, especially if it's still level in the second half, and that hands a tactical advantage to Paraguay to play on the counter attack.

The Pick :

Slovakia 1-1 Paraguay (maybe 2-1 or 1-2)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Slovakia 32% - Draw 33% - Paraguay 35%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Very tough to comfortable pick a single result - as I have all three options as evenly likely.

Given that the "value bet" is to play SLOVAKIA at best prics of 4.00+ - but it's a roughie.

HANDICAP BETTING :

I'll take SLOVAKIA +0.25 or +0.50 on the asian handicap to get something from the game. I make it about 65% likely.