St. Kilda Saints v Geelong Cats
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
Friday, 25th June 2010, Start 19:40 AEST

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This is a big match as it comes on the second Friday night of the split round and it features 1 v 2 on the ladder. It is the current rivalry that is the fiercest and a win for Geelong in this match will put daylight between itself and the chasing pack, and in my opinion will seal a home final for the Cats.

Both teams have had two weeks since their last fixture and I think that is the key pointer toward an exciting tussle between the two best at the best stadium in the world.

Saint Kilda Saints (2nd, 9-3) Form : LWWWW

The Saints have been pretty good lately and their last win on the road in Perth may go down as one of their best. This week they will be aiming to beat their rivals and shake a bit of a hoodoo before potentially meeting the Cats again in September.

The forward line for the Saints will rely on two men mainly. Stephen Milne has to be at his best as the Saints will need to post a pretty solid score to be competitive. Milne has been in the news this week after a rape claim has reared its ugly head again. He was accused in 2004 and this week a former detective has came out and said that evidence was stolen and other cops instructed him to ‘do the right thing’.

It is an unwelcome event for AFL and Milne will either come out and have a big one or stay in his shell due to the furore. Kosi will also need to be solid this week as he is the big man who can take the contested marks. He has had an up and down year but looks as though he may have turned the corner, a lot of expectation will be resting on his shoulders.

The midfield for the Saints is a very classy area. Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna are all pushing for All-Australian spots. Dal Santo is a classy ball user while Hayes and Montagna seem to have the ball on a string at times, with them averaging pretty close to 30 possessions per game.

Brendon Goddard is another vital player for the Saints and could be having his best year to date. Last year he was huge as the Saints made the Grand Final but I feel he may have taken the next step and is clearly now at the top end of elite AFL footballers. His ball use is also awesome and his ability to kick some long goals will be an important aspect for the Saints on Friday night.

In defence the Saints are going to find things tough against a Geelong side that score for fun. Sam Fisher and Jason Blake will need to be at their very best to curb the big Cats, and the smaller defenders will not find the going any easier. Between stopping Geelong’s small forwards from scoring and rebounding out of defence the likes of Sam Gilbert, Steven Baker and Raphael Clarke can be expected to be very tired.

Geelong Cats (1st, 10-2) Form : WWWWW

A couple of big inclusions for the Geelong team this week. Cam Mooney comes in to bolster the forward stocks and the greatest full back in the club’s history, Matthew Scarlett comes back from a while off with injury. Talk in the Cats camp this week is that they are buzzing and ready to go for Friday’s clash.

Scarlett is a massive in for the defence and you can expect him to probably get Kosi if the Saints use him out of the goal square. He reads the game so well and takes a solid contested mark. But more importantly he is another cog in the Geelong machine and his use of the ball coming out of defence is quite impressive. Corey Enright and Josh Hunt will need to be good off half-back and whichever smaller guy gets Stephen Milne, their night will be exhausting.

The Cats centre line is awesome. I have repeatedly said they are the best in the league and people will see why on Friday. The rotations will dictate how things go. If a couple of the Cats get dominated a different couple will try their luck. Between Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly there is likely to be plenty of hardball gets and centre clearances. This will likely get the ball into the forward 50 plenty of times in good positions for the Geelong forwards.

Mooney coming back will take some of the load off James Podsiadly. These two will be the big targets, but the way the Cats play anyone on the list can score. With the likes of Paul Chapman, Shannon Byrnes and Matthew Stokes looming around the 50 metre arc you can expect these men to feature on the scorers sheet. Travis Varcoe has been massive for the Cats since he came back from a broken thumb about 6-7 weeks ago. He now looks to have cemented his spot in the team and his pressure and finishing is quickly making him one of the best small forwards in the league.

The Pick :

Geelong to win this

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Geelong on the Tribet by 16+ at Centrebet at 1.68.

Tribet offers three options - take the win by 16 or over (High Stakes- bet of the Week)