Brisbane Lions v Saint Kilda Saints
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Venue : The GABBA, Brisbane
Saturday, 10th July 2010, Start 19:10 AEST

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I have officially written the Brisbane Lions off as have many AFL experts. They have won only one match in 10 and got demolished pretty comprehensively last week down in Melbourne against Carlton.

The St. Kilda juggernaut keeps rolling and this week their superstar Nick Riewoldt appears ready to come back in after a lengthy layoff with a hamstring injury.

Being in Brisbane this may stay closer than it deserves, but I see nothing other than an easy win for the Saints.

Brisbane Lions (11th, 5-9) Form : WLLLL

The Lions went to Melbourne without Brendan Fevola and Jonathan Brown and were embarrassed. What makes things tougher to comprehend is that this week the Lions face a more structured forward line and that could result in a similar defeat. Brendan Fevola will be counting on a test to clear him fit to play, but Brown will miss another 2 with an abdominal strain. Fevola is the weaker of the two in a mental way. He struggles when things do not go his way and if he does play on Saturday night things probably will go against him.

The Brisbane defence has Daniel Merrett back after an extended layoff due to injury and he will need to be at his best to stop Saints key forward, which is likely to be Riewoldt. The other defenders are pretty weak and will have a difficult time stopping the likes of Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider. The Lions have been unfortunate this season and have been the hardest hit by injuries. Defenders like Josh Drummond and Matt Maguire have been huge outs and were amongst the team’s best when they won 4 straight to open the season.

The midfield depth has also been tested this year with quite a few injuries hurting the Lions hopes of getting some continuity for their younger midfielders. Justin Sherman and Michael Rischitelli have not come along as the Lions coaches would have expected and still too much is left up to Luke Power and Simon Black. They are over 30 years old now and should be able to start winding down their influence in place of some emerging young guys. The Lions centreline will face stern opposition on Saturday night and this is where they will come undone.

The forward line may have Brendan Fevola this week but even if they do it is unlikely to help a great deal. He is not much of a team player and lacks consistency. If he does play he will be below 100 percent and the defenders will have the edge over him. Jarred Brennan, Brent Staker and Todd Banfield will be the best chances for the Lions in terms of scoring goals. But they will not come easy against the best ranked defence in the league, so the poor Lions are really up against it.

Saint Kilda Saints (2nd, 11-3) Form : WWWWW

The Saints had a smooth win over the Demons last Sunday. They did it comfortably and kept in touch at the top of the AFL ladder. This week St. Kilda travels north to get involved against a weak Lions side. There will be no excuses for the Saints this week as they have disposed of much better opponents than Brisbane in the last few weeks.

The backline is the best in the league and it is strange that they do not have any big names in defence. The Saints defence comprises of a tight unit that all perform week in week out to get the desired result. James Gwilt, Jason Blake and Sam Fisher have been vital in defence this year and if they can be tight on their opponents and restrict their scoring opportunities the Saints will have no problems in travelling to a smooth win.

The midfield is where St. Kilda will assert its authority from the first bounce. Leigh Montagna, Lenny Hayes and Brendon Goddard are three men who you can pencil in for 27 or more possessions almost every week. All their touches are very useful and usually result and in a scoring chance for the Saints as they propel the ball inside their forward 50. The Lions will be no match for the Saints in the centre, and the Saints use their rotations well to get others through the centre, and they still dominate.

Nick Riewoldt is the big inclusion for the Saints. He has not appeared since round 3 and will add structure to the Saints forward line. His ability to take double figure marks and kick bags of goals will help the Saints in their quest for September glory. The only question mark is whether he is match-ready after over 10 weeks out, but there is only one way to find out. Riewoldt will be supported be serial pest, Stephen Milne. Milne is not far off the top of the goal scorers’ chart and that is testament to his persistence on the field as well as his freakish ability. The Saints should not find it too tough to kick a good score here.

Last time these sides met :

Round 9, 2009 at Etihad Stadium :
- St Kilda 14.13 (97) beat Brisbane Lions 13.3 (81)

The Pick :

St. Kilda will win

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take St. Kilda by 25 or more at Centrebet at 1.75.
(High Stakes - Bet of the Week)