Hawthorn Hawks v Brisbane Lions
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Venue : Aurora Stadium, Launceston
Saturday, 17th July 2010, Start 14:10 AEST.

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A game in Tasmania this weekend sees the Lions travel to the cold town of Launceston. The Hawks lost to the Cats by 2 points last week and will be keen to atone and make their charge up the ladder.

On the other hand we have the Lions who are playing for pride only, even though it doesn’t appear that way. This clash should be one-way traffic with the Hawks coming out with a comfortable.

Hawthorn Hawks (8th, 8-7) Form : WWWWL

The Hawks put in a massive effort against Geelong, who they always seem to trouble, but came away empty handed. They will be desperate to repeat their effort from Saturday down in Launceston to show teams and their fans they are now as consistent as they once were back in 08. Also a win here would keep them nudging up the table and pushing for a home final or a second chance even.

The defence for the Hawks did well on Saturday holding a usually explosive Cats side to only 85 points. They will need to be near their best again with Lions big man Brown in the mix to return after a few weeks out with an abdominal injury. The likes of Ben Stratton and Josh Gibson will be the key men and if they can hold their opponents to minor scores it should be a fruitful day for the Hawks. Hawthorn will also be reliant on Xavier Ellis and Brent Guerra who will need to provide run and carry of their half-back line and turn defence into attack.

The midfield was very competitive for Hawthorn even though they missed Sam Mitchell. He is very likely to return this weekend and that will add more class through the centre for the Hawks. Couple this with top-liner Brad Hodge and a Brad Sewell who has rediscovered some of his best form and you have a midfield that is not far off its peak, and that resulted in the 2008 Premiership. Aside for their big 3, Hawthorn will need Clinton Young, Michael Osborne and Chance Bateman to contribute and take some of the pressure off their big names.

In the forward line there is the dangerous duo of Buddy Franklin and Jarryd Roughead. This could be a game for Roughead to hit his best form with a bag of goals. With Franklin likely to get the best defender, Roughead may find things a little easier and all he needs to do is keep presenting and he will find enough of it. Cyril Rioli and Shaun Burgoyne are the x-factors for Hawthorn because they add a little class and flair inside the hawks attacking 50. If these 4 names can co-exist with two of them kicking at least 3 goals I can see somewhat of a blowout in this one.

Brisbane Lions (12th, 5-10) Form : LLLLL

The Lions were up against it last week when the Saints travelled north but they surprisingly competed for a good portion of the match. They led at HT by 16 points and then rolled over in the second half where the Saints had 18 scoring chances to 8. There has been some turmoil up in Brisbane this week with claims the Coach is a bit of a dog. The season has gone from bad to worse for Brisbane and It is really hard to see them travelling to Launceston in the cold and playing their best football.

In defence the Lions have Daniel Merret as the main guy to stop Buddy but this could raise some interesting questions. Is Merret a stay at home back? And will he be able to run with Buddy when he goes out of the 50 to set play up? So either way Buddy is a superstar and Merret will struggle, and if Merret picks up Roughead then Buddy could be in for a huge day. Joel Patfull and Tom Collier will also need to be good on their opponents if they are to hold the Hawks to a respectable score. Matthew Maguire is also in the mix to come back this week but has missed so long that you need to ask whether or not he’ll be match fit and ready to play on an in-from Hawthorn forward.

The midfield sees Simon Black lead the way once again for the Lions. He was their best last week and similar efforts will also be needed by Daniel Rich and Michael Rischitelli. Along with Justin Sherman these 2 will be future leaders of the Brisbane football club and after showing promise in previous years they have really been ordinary this year. They need to find consistency so they can help the likes of Luke Power and Simon Black who wouldn’t have more than 2 seasons left in them.

The talk is that Johnno Brown will come in this week to stand alongside Brendan Fevola. Fevola kicked 4 last week in a better showing than recent weeks and the pressure will be on him to repeat this because Brown will not be at full match fitness. Todd Banfield and Amon Buchanan have to offer something extra for the Lions forward line because the Hawks will have a field day if they repeatedly use Brown or Fevola too often.

The Pick :

Hawks win

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Hawthorn on the Tribet at Centrebet.
Take the Hawks to win by 16 or over at 1.62
(High Stakes-Bet of the Week)