West Coast Eagles v Carlton Blues
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Subiaco Oval, Perth
Saturday, 24th July 2010 - Start 19:40 AEST

---

This match sees Carlton travel west in some serious disarray. They are desperate for a win to consolidate a spot in the 8 with North Melbourne and Adelaide snapping at their heels.

The Eagles had a shock win in Melbourne of all places last week, and with that win there may be more confidence in their camp now. I think back at home against a shaky Carlton the Eagles could etch out a win.

West Coast Eagles (16th, 4-12) Form : LLLLW

The Eagles came away from Melbourne last weekend with a win that would have surprised them. It was a pretty convincing 32 point win in the end and the Eagles will be boosted by this after struggling badly in their last 6-8 weeks. There is no chance of finals for the Eagles but with a very strong supporter base they will be keen to repeat their efforts against the Blues at a packed Subiaco Oval.

The Eagles’ defence is still their achilles heel. Last week they conceded 100 points but still won due to their offense. I think they will need to do the same this weekend as Carlton has a pretty healthy scoring average. The likes of Eric Mackenzie, Mitchell Brown and Will Schofield will need to be pretty good in their man-on-man battles with a Carlton forward line that has struggled of late and is lacking some serious structure.

The centre for West Coast will be the biggest battle, because it is
Carlton’s strong point. The Eagles have used the ball awfully this year and started like that again on Saturday night against Essendon kicking at less than 50 percent efficiency. However this deficiency was resurrected and they began kicking the ball near 80 percent efficiency. It sounds great but it is pretty much the AFL average. The likes of Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis along with Adam and Scott Selwood will need to be using the ball well from the outset in this one to compete with a solid Blues’ centreline.

Josh Kennedy played a great game last week against the Dons. He has 20 touches and took 12 marks. While he only managed the one goal his influence in the forward half of the field was huge and he played a role in setting up plenty of scoring opportunities.

The star for West Coast last week was Mark LeCras. He bagged a dozen goals; yes you heard right 12 goals, in a magnificent display. He kicked goals from marks, from general play, from acute angles, he was kicking them from everywhere. Anywhere near close to a repeat performance will stand the Eagles in good stead and with Kennedy beginning to fire they have every chance to outscore the Blues.

Also the ability of Dean Cox or Nic Naitanui to drift forward and score a goal or two from the ruck may make things tough on Carlton.

Carlton Blues (8th, 8-8) Form : LLWLL

The Blues are beginning to get desperate, and the pressure is mounting on their coach Brett Ratten. He refuses to make certain changes and it is affecting the structure of the side especially in the forward line. The main problem is scoring an amount that will trouble opposing sides. Last week they scored 68 and the week before 58. Granted they were against weaker sides but even if you give the Blues 85-95 points it still may not
be enough.

Down back the Blues will be pressed to contain Kennedy and LeCras. They are both on fire and I am not too sure how the likes of Paul Bower, Michael Jamison and Jordan Russel will be able to contain them. Also the Blues do not have the best rebounders coming off defensive 50 with Bryce Gibbs struggling and the other guys not being too flash using the ball. In my opinion the Carlton backline/Eagles forward-line is where the game will be won. A good result on both Kennedy and LeCras should see Carlton have a serious chance of a win.

The Carlton midfield will also need to step up after being dominated in the last two fixtures. Chris Judd started on fire but his decline has been reflected in Carlton’s results. He is their best player by a country mile and there is no doubt that the younger Blues rely on him to take charge and set the tone for them in most outings. A better showing will be needed by Judd. Marc Murphy and Heath Scotland are not playing anywhere near their best and need to raise their games if they are to offer Judd any support.

The Blues forward-line is stuttering badly. The main man is a small forward in Eddie Betts and even his consistency is being called into question. He needs a good game to ease the pressure on his shoulders, but his fellow indigenous players in Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran need to offer him some support in the forward line. As for a key big man the Blues have Lachie Henderson and Jarrad Waite, but neither is in form and only one is good when they are in form. The ball entry inside will be crucial but the Blues will need to make it more efficient than in recent weeks.

The Betting Tip

West Coast narrowly in a match marred with errors.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

As the main bet take West Coast to win by 1-39 on Centrebet at 2.66
(Medium Stakes)

As a side bet take West Coast by 1-19 on Centrebet at 4.65 (Low Stakes)