Champions League
2010-10-19 - Spartak Moscow vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Pantocrator
Football ; Champions League Group Stage, 3rd matchday
Tuesday, 19th October 2010. Kickoff 18:30
Only ardent optimists could've predicted Spartak would be standing shoulder to shoulder with Chelsea in Champions League Group F after 2 matchdays. Strategically speaking 1 earned point from two h2h encounters against Londoners would be a satisfactory result as Marseille is still Spartak's main rival for second position. There is a real boom in Moscow before the visit of Abramovich's project, all 81 000 tickets were sold out a week ago.
Friday’s easy home victory over Alanya (3-0) was overshadowed by thigh injury to key midfielder Alex. Although his season has been worse than his debut performance last year his importance for Spartak can’t be underestimated. Brazilian is team’s heart and soul, a true leader on and off the pitch. In terms of charisma and leadership skills he is second to none in Karpin’s squad. Alex's compatriot Ari, scorer of two goals against Zilina, will replace him in the starting line up. Although former AZ man is a striker, he has the skills to work from the deep. I anticipate to see an identical line up to the one which dismantled Zilina 3 weeks ago. Only central midfielder Ibson will be introduced instead of injured Alex.
Spartak's captain is fundamental for team's attacking play, so hosts will be short of his trademark through passes. Moreover set-pieces’ potential gets decreased significantly as Alex is a permanent free-kick and corner kick taker.
I will not talk about Chelsea too much, since it's mostly a EPL oriented web site you all know what they are and what they want. Londoners are in Moscow without Drogba who is yet to make a start for them in this Champions League. Kalou, Lampard, Bosingwa,Benayoun and Ramires are all out as well. Thus there should be some room for youngsters like Kikuta or McEachran.
Personally I don't rate Chelsea that high under Ancellotti. Blues have been fortunate to see their main League rivals (Arsenal, Manchester Unite & Liverpool) struggle for a second consecutive year, while italian's integration into the team had gone smoother than you'd expect.
Betting advice
Two main concerns here are Chelsea’s motivation to get 3 points and Spartak’s confidence level without Alex.
I've seen it so many times before, at this stage of the competition, when a big club doesn't show enough desire to get the maximum result on the road. For Chelsea, who still have home fixtures with Spartak and Zilina (+6 points almost automatically), the match in Moscow is not decisive. Same goes for hosts, by the way.
Nevertheless as odds continue to rise on Chelsea’s victory I see some value opening up in the (-0.25) offer. Anything around 2.00 is worth taking as Spartak will hardly win this one and, at the same time, their clean-sheet (2 games in a row) should be broken.
The Statistics :
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