Romanian League
2011-03-20 - Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCM Targu-Mures
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football: Romania: Liga 1
Venue: Stadion Stefan cel Mare, Bucuresti, Romania
Sunday 20th March – Kickoff time: 20:00 GMT+2
Dinamo Bucuresti (7th W-9 D-7 L-5)
Dinamo finally has the chance to win a game at home after 4 consecutive draws. Their previous home victory was obtained back in October, against Gaz Metan Medias, after a nice second half comeback.
The “Red Dogs” keep on conceding goals at home, reaching the “impressive” mark of 22 goals, but they have the excuse of scoring 24. In fact, 10 of the 11 games Dinamo played at home, ended up with at least 3 goals scored.
Dinamo was considered big favorite in the majority of their home games, but ended up winning only 4 from a possible of 11 games, so betting on Dinamo is clearly not a good way to approach this match, even if on paper they do have the better squad.
Central midfielder Djakaridja Kone is likely to miss this game because of a muscle injury. However, coach Ioan Andone received some great news this week, Stefan Barboianu and Valeriu Gaman joining the team (both from Universitatea Craiova, but after terminating their contract). These players who have been U21 internationals could really strengthen up Dinamo’s shaky defense.
Dinamo's home form:
04.03.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 20 Dinamo 2 - 2 Pandurii Tg. Jiu
04.12.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 18 Dinamo 2 - 2 Astra Ploiesti
27.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 17 Dinamo 0 - 0 Poli Stiinta Timisoara
14.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 15 Dinamo 2 - 2 U Craiova
29.10.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 13 Dinamo 3 - 2 Gaz Metan Medias
FCM Targu-Mures (11th W-7 D-5 L-9)
FCM pulled of a shock result in the previous stage, defeating the leader, Otelul Galati at home. This result gave hope to many contenders in their title aspirations, but Timisoara seems to be the only one who could overtake Otelul.
That victory gives them a comfortable 6 points advantage against the first place that means relegation, so there is really not much pressure on Targu-Mures, because no one would blame them if they lose against Dinamo. This is exactly that worries me and I would not advise betting on Dinamo, even if they are a likely winner.
One of their best players, Borislav Topic suffered a severe injury in the Otelul game and will miss all season, so it’s a big loss.
FCM's away form:
04.03.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 20 Unirea Urziceni 0 - 1 FCM Târgu-Mureş
03.12.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 18 FC Brasov 1 - 1 FCM Târgu-Mureş
28.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 17 U Cluj 1 - 1 FCM Târgu-Mureş
06.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 14 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 4 - 1 FCM Târgu-Mureş
23.10.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 12 Astra Ploiesti 0 - 0 FCM Târgu-Mureş
The betting verdict
FCM is not a great team, but scoring against Dinamo proved to be accessible to most of the teams from Liga 1, so I don’t see why the team from Targu-Mures won’t do it. Having Diego Ruiz and Didi in front (both ex- CFR Cluj), coach Ioan Ovidiu Sabau’s hopes for a draw are justified, but they have to be aware of Dinamo’s firepower. Dinamo already scored 43 goals so far, having the best attack from the league.
I would say that Dinamo has a 60% probability to win the game, which means that there is a 40% chance that they won’t win it, so the 1.40 odds will not tempt many punters.
The best betting option in my opinion is over 2.5 goals, mainly because I can’t ignore the fact that 91% of Dinamo’s home games ended with at least 3 goals scored, with an average of 4.2 goals per match. This is a good reason to pick overs at 2.15.
The Pick :
Dinamo Bucuresti 2-1 FCM Targu-Mures
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 Bet365Confidence: 7/10
