EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - HUNGARY V NETHERLANDS

Euro 2012

2011-03-25 - Hungary vs Netherlands

A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt

Hungary v Netherlands
Football: Euro 2012 qualifying
Venue: "Puskas Ferenc" stadium, Budapest, Hungary
Friday 25th March – Kickoff time: 20:30 GMT+1

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Hungary

Hungary is currently 2nd in the group E of the Euro 2012 qualifying campaign, having 9 points after four games and are coming into this match after winning 5 consecutive games (Moldova, San Marino, Finland, Lituania, Azerbaijan) which hasn’t happened in the previous 26 years.

Head coach Sandor Egervari will not be able to use Adam Szalai, the striker who scored 4 goals this season for Mainz 05. He will try to line up an offensive team, with Bari's striker Gergely Rudolf in front – he's the guy who scored Bari's goal in the shocking draw in the San Siro stadium against AC Milan – with a trio behind him.

He will be supported by captain Zoltan Gera from Fulham, Tamas Hajnal who at VFB Stuttgart on loan from Borussia Dortmund, but he's not a regular and probably the best rated player from Hungary's squad, PSV's winger Balazs Dzsudzsak. He has 15 goals and 12 assists in this season’s Eredivisie, being one of the best players from the Dutch league.

The Hungarians are unbeaten since their 2-0 away loss against Sweden on September 3, 2010, but let's not forget that Hungary have not qualified for a European Championships since 1972, when they finished fourth at the finals.

Probable Hungary line-up :
Kiraly
Lazar, Liptak, Juhasz, Laczko
Elek, Vadocz
Gera, Hajnal, Dzsudzsak
Rudolf

Netherlands

Head coach Bert Van Marwijk declared that he never had so many squad issues before a game like he has now, 5 of his regulars being injured (Maarten Stekelenburg, Arjen Robben, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Hedwiges Maduro and Mark van Bommel). He also said that the players might change but their style can't, so they proved against Austria.

According to a statistic made by Hungarian newspaper Nemzetisport, Holland is the best team from Europe in qualifiers (both World Cup and Euro) since 2002 until present, winning 80.7 percent of the points in game, being that only team that has a +80 percentage. Spain is next with 79.9. In 50 games, the Dutch scored 109 goals and only conceded 25.

Martin Stekelenburg's replacement for this match will be Michel Vorm. He he has some great reflexes, but he's not very tall for a goalkeeper, only 1.83m and certainly lacks international experience. The 2009 match against Scotland at Hampden Park was Vorm's first competitive game ever outside the Netherlands.

Probable Netherlands Team line-up :
Vorm
Van der Wiel, Mathijsen, Heitinga, Pieters
N. De Jong, Van der Vaart
Kuyt, Sneijder, Afellay
Van Persie

The Betting Verdict

These two met in 2010, when Holland was preparing for the World Cup and it turned out to be a humiliation for the Hungarians, who lost the game conceding 6 goals. Bert Van Marwijk said that Hungary is much different now, but I think that he was just being polite.

Of course, it's highly unlikely to see so many goals but I cannot see past a Dutch win, despite having so many injured players. Netherlands always had a large area of selection and this team should do enough to get a win here against a team that has its limits.

According to Gooners spreadsheet, there is poor value in taking Holland at 1.50, even if it's a likely winner, but I've seen them playing several times in Romania (who is slightly better than Hungary) and even if they are playing away from home they dominate the midfield and create a pressure that finally leads to at least one or two goals scored.

Hungary won 4 of their previous 6 games but they only obtained victories against poor rated opponents. The last time Hungary defeated a big name was back in 1995 when they won against Sweden.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Main bet: Take Netherlands to win at 1.54 Pinnacle
Confidence 9/10

Side bet: Take Netherlands to win to nil at 2.30 Bet365
Confidence 5/10