Icelandic Football
2011-05-29 - IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Vikingur Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league - Round 6
Sunday May 29 2011, 16:00 (GMT)
The sixth round starts with Vikingur travelling to Vestmannaeyjar to face the second placed team, IBV. IBV have a chance of grabbing the top spot, at least for a while, but in order to do so they must press through a strong defense as Vikingur have only conceded 3 goals in five games, interestingly the same as IBV. This is a clash of two strong defenses.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
(2011 Record : 2nd 3-1-1 6:3)
IBV have continued with their good form since last year, sitting in 2nd place with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, and only a single point behind leaders KR. At home their record is 1 1 1 but have won both of their away games, including a great defeat over Valur. Last round saw them beating Keflavik 0-2 on the road scoring both goals in the first ten minutes and holding tight onto the lead.
Their IBV Vestmannaeyjar defense is said to be one of the best, if t the best, in the league conceding in only two of five games, a total of 3 goals. Their offense is ok, but nothing more. Even though they have scored in all of their games, it must be kept in mind that they have already played against three of the weakeast defenses in the league; Fram (8 conceded), Fylkir (8) and Breidablik (10). Against Valur, which have only conceded 3 goals, they managed to score 1 goal in the last minute after being a man down for 45 mins and now they are up against an equally strong barrier.
Their key player, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, broke his cheekbone three ways in the last game but will play wearing a protective mask. He did not take no for an answer as his aim is to break the league record of most goals scored by a player in the history of the championship. This will be important for IBV as he is the major factor in their attacking build-up.
Vikingur Reykjavik
(2011 Record : 8th 1-3-1 :3:3)
As newcomers in the top league, Vikingur have made an impressive start, although they sit in 8th place with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. Their only loss came at home against leaders KR but they managed a 1-1 draw on the road against the champions candidates in FH, where they were unlucky not to grab all three points. In last they drew 0-0 at home against Grindavik in an extreamly dull match where their offensive problems were once again noticeable.
The Vikingur scoreline is quite peculiar, having scored only in two games, a total of 3 goals, but their defense has been the key to these results as they have also only conceded in two games, a total of 3 goals, against KR and FH, two teams with great offensive skills. What is worrying for them is the lack of goals, the 3 coming against Thor Akureyri and FH, where the results were really a shock to all.
Vikingur now face a strong and organized defense where their key strikers, B. Takefusa and H. Sigurdsson need to step up their game if they are to come away with something here. Their main problem forward has been the midfiled, which doesnt provide enough service for the strikers.
They will miss their key defender, E. Atlason, again but it didnt seem to matter in the last game against Grindavik. However, IBV is much stronger forward than Grindavik so I suspect a tough gameday for them where they will sit back trying to make trouble on the fastbreak or trough high balls.
Head to head
Last time the two met in the top league was back in 2006 where Vikingur won both games, 5-0 and 0-1. In 2008 they met in league one when IBV won both games, 1-0 and 1-4. In 2009 they met in the cup where IBV got the better, 3-2, and in the pre-season cup this year IBV won 2-1.
So IBV have had the better in recent years winning last four.
The Betting Verdict
As only one game of the ten both sides have played so far has been over 2.5 goals, which is very much under the seasons average of around 30%, and the fact that both teams have strong and organized defenses I dont see many goals coming our way.
Vikingur will sit back but if IBV manages to get passed them the tactics of the game may change, but pre-match info dont give out anything suggesting many goals.
A fact to consider is that IBV havent been too good at home scoring the winning goal against Fram in the last minute, drawing 1-1 against Breidablik after trailing and losing 1-2 to Fylkir. On top of that Vikingur havent lost on the road, drawing both games, against FH and Stjarnan.
This is not a banker by any means. I will take IBV here as they have scored in every game and will be highly motivated after a good victory in last round. 1-0 or 2-0 seems likely here with Vinkingur's offensive problems to continue.
I would rate IBV higher but they do have the difficult task of breaking back the tight defense and are yet to prove their strenth at home.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet : Betting on IBV to win is on offer at fair value – IBV to win @ 1.75 (Unibet)Side bet : As I'm a bit surprised to see the odds on offer for under 2.5 I recommend trying under 2.5 @ 1.91
Long shot :
I always like a long shot now and then. Consider HT/FT of DRAW/IBV as it might take time for them to break through.
DRAW / IBV @ 4.5 (VCBet)
