Icelandic Football
2011-07-31 - BI-Bolungarvik vs KR Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic Cup - The Valitor Cup, Semi-finals
Sunday July 31 2011, 16:00 (GMT)
The first semi final produced a historical result when Thor Akureyri made their way in to the finals for the first time in history by beating IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-0.
This game in the semis has also the potential to be historic and one might be tempted to wonder, will it really happen?
BI/Bolungarvik
The BI/Bolungarvik saga has been like a fairy tale in recent years. The club is combined of the two former clubs, Ballclub of Isafjordur and Bolungarvik and was founded only five years ago, back in 2006. It is located in the Westfjords of Iceland.
Being a league 3 (three leagues below the top league) club in years they got promoted to league 2 in 2008 and to league 1 in 2010. This is mostly in part due to some financial strong group putting money into the club.
Then, in October last year, BI/Bolungarvik hired former national team manager, Gudjon Thordarson, as their team manager. Gudjon should be well known for his achievements with the national team in the latter part of the 90's of last century where he was close to bringing Iceland into the Euro finals and got them up to around 40th place on the Fifa ranking list.
Gudjon has also managed Stoke, Barnsley and Notts County. He is one of the most victorious managers in Iceland making IA Akranes 5-times champions in the early 90's. Before that in '89 he had made KA Akureyri champions very surprisingly. Among teams he has managed are KR Reykjavik and Keflavik. Gudjon is said to be very difficult to work with which was seen during his time with all three English sides.
BI-Bolungarvik's record in 2010 was 47 points in 22 games, 15-2-5, 58:28, scoring the most in the league and conceding the third least. At home they had an impressive 8-0-3 record while being similar on the road with 7-2-2.
Their start in league 1 has been quite acceptable and they currently sit in 4th place with 21 points after 14 rounds and an overall record of 6-3-5, 18:23. They are 19 points behind leaders IA Akranes, who are completely dominatiing the league, but only 7 points behind the second promotion spot.
BI-Bolungarvik's Cup Run
Being a lower league team they start their cup battle earlier than the top league team. In their first round (final 64) they beat league 3 team, KFG, 1-3 on the road and then thrashed league 2 team, Reynir Sandgerdi, 5-1 at home.
Then they got their dream opponents in the final 16, namely the current champions holders Breidablik, and they got the home game. The results they got made the headlines. After trailing 0-1 from first half they leveled with 20 minutes remaining of the game. It went to extra time where BI/Bolungavik won an amazing 4-1 victory leaving the title holders completely stunned.
In the quarterfinal they got lucky once again receiving the home game against league 1, Throttur Reykjavik. That game was very tough and peculiar. Throttur got the lead in the 2nd minute but BI/Bolungarvik scored two in the next six bringing it to 2-1. Then in the 66th minute Throttur leveled but BI/Bolungarvik got the lead straight back in the same minute!
They then headed home a great 3-2 win earning them the right to play in the semi finals where again their dream comes true. They will play at home against the strongest side in the championship, KR Reykjavik. This is with out a doupt their most important game in their short history.
Home Advantage :
It is extremely important for BI/Bolungarvik to have gotten the home game since it will give them a much more chance against KR. The traveling distances to these sides is the biggest reason for them being stronger at home than they are away. From Isafjordur to Bolungarvik the distace is over 500km. This of course means flying for the visitors which must be quite different than for example driving short distances close to Reykjavik.
But, BI/Bolungarvik's players and manager will very well know that this game is completely different to the game against Breidablik. Reason is, that they are of course playing in a league below KR Reykjavik who are much much stronger than Breidablik.
Gudjon Thordarson must use all his experience in this clash and his two years at KR might come in hand. They will face their most toughest opponent they have ever played and everything must click if they are to have any chance at all, even if they are playing at home.
BI/Bolungarvik must tighten their defense to hold back KR's very powerful frontline. This is very important since BI/Bolungarvik have conceded in all four cup games and have also been conceding too many in their league battle. If they give KR the chance to open them up they might become victims to a goal galore just like they did against IA Akranes earlier this season when they lost 0-6 at home.
Still, one must keep in mind that Akranes don't belong at all in league 1 since their record is 13 1 0 and the scoreline 41:6! All the other league games BI/Bolungarvik have played were very close and of the 4 other games they have lost only one was with more than a one goal margin.
Their last two league games went 1-1 and 0-0 so they have been slowing down a little but they will know that they have absolutely nothing to lose and will try to surprise at all costs. They will probably have a terrible difficult time for the first 20-30 minutes or so but if they will be able to hold KR back they might be able to produce something special.
KR Reykjavik
Being well into the season KR Reykjavik don't need any special introduction. They are currently leading in the top league by 4 points and a game in hand. Interestingly their away record is more solid than the home record, being 5 1 0, 14:4 and 3 2 0, 11:3 respectively.
KR have scored the most and conceded the least in the league so everything looks really good for them at the moment. Specialists agree that they are by far the strongest team in the league at the moment. They also got into the 3rd round of the Europa league qualification where they lost their first game of the season against a strong Dinamo Tbilisi side 1-4 at home after getting the lead early on.
Thus it's very hard not to see KR Reykjavik going to BI/Bolungarvik and earning the right to compete in the final game. Everything points to a secure victory but they will know that that's the danger and their manager, Runar Kristinsson will know that for sure. He has made a big efford all season to keep his players on the ground despite the good run they have had and this has undoubtly been a good move on his behalf.
Every football follower knows that the cup can produce wonders and KR will know that. Still, they will probably open the game with very fast play and high pressure in order to get a goal forcing BI/Bolungarvik to come forward and opening up in the back.
One factor that will be driving KR is that they got into the final last year where they lost badly 4-0 to FH Hafnarfjordur. They will be wanting to make amends for that slipup. If they beat BI/Bolungarvik they will know that they have all the chances of snatching the cup since they will be up against Thor Akureyri who are weak on the road and the final is of course played on neutral grounds.
Head to head
It's pretty obvious that the two have never met before.
The Betting Verdict
Anything else than a KR win will come as a surprise. You can't argue against it given the current situation. KR played a tough game a few days back in the Europe league where they lost 1-4 after getting the lead.
The players and manager were furstrated not to have used some of the many chances they got to score more goals. One only wonders if they might have had their mind a bit on the upcoming semifinal game.
I think the result of this game will depend on the first 20 minutes or so. If BI/Bolungarvik are able to withstand the first part I think they might even be able to tease the champions candidates a little. However, if KR manages to score early on we might witness a number of goals and the former might even be humiliated.
Be careful in finding some value for this game since KR is on offer at around 1.3-1.35. Even though those odds are fair it's hard to be happy betting on them. Try to find another angle like handicap, ht/ft, number of goals etc. Having said that the HT 1x2 offer much better value with, have a look at that as a main bet.
For example, remember that KR have scored 2 or 3 goals in all of their 6 away games exept for one were they only scored 1 and they have won three away games with a clean sheet.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take KR Reykjavik to be leading at HT @ 1.73 (Bet365)Side bet
With KR's firepower and BI/Bolungarvik's surprise factor in mind have a look at over 3.5 goals @ 2.10
