Icelandic Football
2011-08-18 - Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league - Round 15
Thursday August 18 2011, Kickoff 19:15 (GMT)
This is the first of KR’s three postponed games. The two sides involved met just few days ago in the cup final where KR somehow managed to steal the win, winning 2-0 after a number of great chances from Thor.
Now the latter get the change to avenge against the top placed team in the league at their own strong home.
Thor Akureyri
Here we go again, is something Thor’s players might be thinking of. They met KR last Saturday in the cup final where they lost, very unfairly, 2-0 after hitting the crossbar five times and being denied an obvious penalty. Somehow it looked like KR simply won the cup due to their high experience opposed to Thor.
An important factor to have in mind is that KR winning the cup means that Thor will take their spot in the European battle if the former win the Icelandic champions title. This has evoked questions about how Thor will assess the upcoming game against KR, although Thor’s manager says they will start supporting KR after the match on Thursday.
With Thor sitting in 8th place with 17 points, nine points ahead of miserable Fram and Vikingur, it’s almost certain that they have already secured their spot in the top league where they are playing for the first time since 2002. Thor have acheaved this by being extreamly hard to beat at home where their record is 4 1 2, 15:9, beating for example IBV Vestmannaeyjar and drawing against KR Hafnarfjordur. Thor’s away record is much much worse, being 1 1 5, 6:19.
After winning three games in a row (all at home) with an amazing scoreline of 11:2, Thor lost badly at Stjarnan 1-5. That game was the last one before the cup final and Thor rested many of their key players and their manager almost admitted after the game he had known they would lose against Stjarnan. He simply said what was true; the final was coming and their position in the league is pretty safe.
Thor’s main problem is their defense which is currently the second worse in the league and they have only twice kept a clean sheet, both times against Fram, the least scoring team by far in the league. They have made up for this by scoring a decent amount of goals and have only twice failed to score, with one time being in their bad home loss against Valur, 0-3. With this in mind it’s not very surprising that 10 of Thor’s 14 games have been over 2.5 goals with six of those 10 going over 3.5.
With the frustration after the cup final still in mind it’s pretty obvious that Thor aren´t going to let KR have a walk in the part and will surely be looking to continue with their tough physical play. They really got humiliated in the last round losing 1-5 and they will be seeking not to let that happen again, now playing with their strongest group available.
KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik have simply been excellent this season and now they are, once again, the national cup winners but they know that they were quite lucky. However, they used their chances, Thor did not, that’s how football works.
KR still haven’t lost to an Icelandic club in all competitions this season but the question is, can it continue like that throughout the season? That has never happened in at least 30 years, and I really don’t know if it has ever happened in recent history (didn’t look further back).
With an overall record of 9 3 0, 28:9, and 30 points in 1st place KR really seem to be on a straight road to the title, especially when it’s taken into account that they still have played three games less than most other teams in the league. If they manage to win all three games they will be 10 points clear on the top and will surely have secured the title.
This fact could become dangerous for KR but their manager has done a great job in keeping the players on the ground so they won’t get overconfident about their strength and position.
KR run away vs home is pretty similar, with 5 1 0, 14:4 away and 4 2 0, 14:5 at home. They have conceded the least in the league and scored the third most, but with fewer games played than their competitors.
KR have scored seven goals in their last two games, winning Breidablik 4-0 and Vikingur 3-2, both at home. Actually they were quite lucky to beat Vikingur but you could argue that, just like with Thor against Stjarnan, this was their last game before the cup final and they might not have been playing on full throttle.
Still, one must keep in mind that they did struggle against Thor in the cup final where the latter simply owned the game in the first stages. Whether this is a hint that KR might be slowly losing their grip is hard to say but they could have a hard time visiting Thor so shortly at their win in the cup final.
Of course it’s highly likely that KR will score again against Thor’s poor defense, especially since KR have scored in ecery single game in the league so far. In fact they have just three times scored only one goal in a game. They will have to be patient and find some ways around Thor’s firm and tough tactics and be careful not to let Thor in on the counterattack.
Head to head
Two games this season. KR won 3-1 at home in the league and then 2-0 in the cup final.
The Betting Verdict
With this European factor in mind I’m not opting for the 1X2 here. It’s simply impossible to say how it will affect the players for real, even though they want to go into this game to win.
Of course KR are the favorites and the odds reflect that but at the moment Thor area averaging at 5.34 which is by far their highest at home this season.
In comparison they were 4.72 against FH, 3.93 against IBV and 3.8 against Valur.
It’s pretty obvious that the bookies do have this European factor in mind. This makes the game a bit tricky to read into but I’m aiming for the overs here since Thor have over 70% in over 2.5 and KR nearly 60%. On top of that, Thor’s defense is weak and KR’s offense is strong.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Since I have no clue how to assess the 1X2 go for the over 2.5 goals @ 1.48 (Bet365)
Side bet :
Since the odds for the overs aren’t very appealing I want to try the draw at HT which pays out @ 2.5 (Bet365)
Long shot :
It’s bin a while since I tried one so why not have a go at HT/FT DRAW/DRAW at a wallet bursting 7.5 (Bet365)
