Icelandic Football
2011-08-25 - KR Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league - Round 9
Thursday August 25 2011, Kickoff 18:00 (GMT)
These two teams are in the top battle and still haven’t met this season. This is a postponed game from round 9 and it really seems vital for the visitors to get all three points. However, a win for the hosts brings them even closer to the title.
KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik are still without a loss this season and remain in the top place with 34 points and an overall record of 10 4 0, 31:11. However, they haven’t been as solid in their last four games as in the rounds before.
Only just edging home the win against Vikingur back in round 14 KR then headed on into the cup final against Thor where the latter completely owned the game and had many chances. Still, KR managed to win and then followed that by winning Thor again at Akureyri 2-1 after trailing 0-1. Then in the last round KR hosted Stjarnan where it ended 1-1 but could’ve easily gone Stjarnan’s way.
On top of that KR’s manager, Runar Kristinsson, seems to be losing his grip a bit. He has spoken very openly about his opinion on the second largest television station in Iceland where he says the specialists on the main football show are terrorising his team by saying that the referees are refereeing in KR’s favor. He says that this has meant that the refereeing has turned against KR in latest games and that the referees are hesitant to give them freekicks and penalties.
Whether this matters or not is hard to say but it’s out there and must be kept in mind. KR have also been losing some players to injuries and of course there is the question about players tierdness after a great run.
This, of course, doesn’t mean KR aren’t the most likely to win the league. They still have two points more than IBV having played one game less and three more points than FH who have played two games more. Thus, KR are in pole position and the outright betting reflects that as they are priced at a poor 1.3 to win the title.
However, they must be very careful and if they drop points in those two postponed games teams like FH can be quick to close in on them. IBV won’t be easy to handle with their strong defense and KR’s other postponed game is against Keflavik who have a good record against the former.
Three of the four draws KR have made came at home which could be a bit worrying for them but away they have been much stronger with 6 1 0. Their scoreline is almost identical, 15:6 at home and 16:5 on the road. KR have the strongest defense in the league and they have scored the second most. However, they have conceded in four of last five games but have made up for that by scoring 11 goals.
KR can not afford to lose against IBV since their lead could become in danger but a draw wouldn’t probably be too bad for them, although they will surely press this one for a win.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Strangely enough IBV Vestmannaeyjar have managed to hang on to KR despite not playing to good lately and being a bit unstable. After a loss at Grindavik back in round 11 came a win against Fram where IBV didn’t play well at all. Then came a strong performance at Fylkir where they won 3-1 but in the next game they were lucky to escape with a draw hosting Valur.
After that IBV got a very hard fought 2-1 win at Breidablik before snathcing another close win hosting Keflavik. The winning goals in these two games game in the latest stages of the games.
This means IBV are still in 2nd place with 32 points and an overall record of 10 2 3, 24:13. By winning KR IBV would get into the top place, one point ahead of KR but with one more game played. There isn’t much difference in IBV’s record at home or on the road since they are 5 2 1, 13:7 and 5 0 2, 11:6 respectively. Their defense is the second strongest in the league but they might have wanted to score a bit more goals even though its in the higher end of course.
What has been failing for IBV is their high pressure defense tactics which worked so well in the first part of the season. They have conceded in last four games and need to be careful about what tactics they pick against KR’s very powerful attack.
With FH Hafnarfjordur absolutely on fire winning five games in a row IBV will know that they really do have to get all three points here or else things could get very difficult for them. This means that they will have to take some risks up front but they will probably try to sit back the first part of the game.
Head to head
Since 2006 KR Reykjavik and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have met 8 times. KR have wone 7 of those 8 match and IBV just 1 win. KR have won last 7 games. Only 2 of these 8 were over 2.5 goals.
The Betting Verdict
This game is one of the toughest I have previewed to assess. Both teams have been slowing a bit down lately even though they are in the top two positions.
These are the two strongest defenses in league so you might expect low scoring, but then again both of them have been conceding lately and that fact seems to have made the bookies price the under 2.5 as high as 2.5. To me that’s value for at least a small side bet.
I would be careful in backing KR at a too low price since they haven’t been convincing lately and now they will surely be put down to the test even though IBV are also a bit dodgy. On top of that, KR will have round four or five players injured.
However, KR’s dominant head to head results lately can’t be overlooked which makes this one even more harder to predict. KR are the favorites but my rating for them has gone lower over the past few days due to the injuries and other factors mentioned above.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :I think the bookies got the under/over all wrong. Expect a cautious game and go for under 2.5 goals at a tasty 2.35 (Bet365)
Side bet :
With both teams likely not risking anything early on consider HT correct score of 0-0 @ 3.5 (Bet365)
