SERBIA - ITALIA
Football : International : European Championships Qualifier
Friday 7th October - Kickoff 19:45pm

Serbia

The Serbian teams enters this game having had a really poor qualifying campaign. On paper it doesn't look so bad, sitting second behind top seeds Italy, but the reality is they never looked like getting near the top spot. With the Italians the group winners regardless of the result this is the perfect opportunity to play them and secure second spot and lockdown a playoff spot.

After dominating qualification campaign for the World Cup, many expected the Serbs to be a dark horse in South Africa. Yet despite beating Germany, the side finished bottom of their group and thoroughly let themselves down.

This qualifying campaign hasn't got going either, with the side losing the reverse fixture in Italy because of crowd trouble and since then things haven't got much better.

Two shocking performances against Slovenia (1-1) and then Estonia (1-3) both at home threatened to derail their campaign. But with the other sides in the group equally as erratic, the recent 3 game unbeaten run has seen them regain second place in the group.

The home form is poor with just 3 wins in the last 6, they have won the last 2 which is encouraging but only against Faroe Islands (3-1) and Northern Ireland (2-1). The 2 games before were the games mentioned above which came as a shock given Serbia beat Romania (5-0) and held France (1-1) prior to those two shock results.

At home in this campaign, the Serbs have scored in every game and have even scored in their last 6 home games in total. I think they will be good for a goal on Friday night but that may be it given that the Italians have an outstanding defensive record.

Team news is that Serbia boss Petrovic will be without Bisevac and Kuzmanovihas but does have Krasic, Zigic and Vidic back in contention following recent injuries. With a big game against Slovenia away from home midweek, Vidic may make his come back in that game. The side is full of class with Kolarov, Krasic, Ivanovic, Stankovic and Tosic all very good players. With the side at home and needing to win, I expect an attacking 4-4-2 from Petrovic as they look to take the game to the Italians.

Predicted Serbia Lineup:
Jorgacevic, Ivanovic, Subotic, Tomovic, Kolarov, Krasic, Stankovic, Kuzmanovic, Tosic, Pantelic, Zigic

Italia

Coach Prandelli has done an excellent job this campaign with the Italians already declared group winners after collecting 7 wins and a draw from their 8 games. Up next is a meaningless game in Serbia but the coach has stressed he wants to remain unbeaten in the group so they will take this seriously.

With Serbia a really tough team to draw in the group many layers thought Italy were there for the taking but they have been incredibly efficient this campaign.

The 3-0 win over the Serbs back in October was fortunate because of crowd trouble but given how poor the Serbs were in that period I'd of expected an Italian win anyway.

In the 7 games played only Northern Ireland held Italy in a 0-0 draw in Belfast. Before then Italy beat Estonia and the Faroes and after the draw the Italians went on to won 5 straight all to nil which is very emphatic.

Incredibly Estonia back in the first set of games, are the only team to score against Italy in a 2-1 win for the Italians on Estonian soil. Since then in 7 games no one has found the back of the Italian net!

The negative though, is that 3 wins have been 1-0 and the Italians have only scored more than once in 3 games against Estonia (twice) and Faroe Islands with the Serbia 3-0 a default win. This side lacks goals and that's unlikely to change when they face Serbia on Friday.

Team news is that Criscito, Balotelli and Pazzini miss out whilst Rossi is a major doubt as well. Osvaldo and Ogbonna have been called up as late replacements with so many players pulling out or picking up knocks midweek. Italy defensively are solid, led by Buffon and a strong back four that will be hard to beat. The midfield has a lot of experience with Pirlo and De Rossi, Cassano will play up top along side Giovinco in Pazzini's absence.

Predicted Italia Lineup:
Buffon, Maggio, Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini, Pirlo, De Rossi, Marchisio, Montolivo, Cassano, Giovinco

The Betting Verdict

The first goal is massive in this game, if the Italians get it then this one could be another 1-0 away win. However, with Serbia looking to win from the offset I can't see too much threat at the Serbia goal.

The Italians will play the game at their own pace looking to keep the ball as long as possible even if it's in their own half. This will annoy and frustrated Serbia for sure and with a hostile crowd I don't think they will like seeing their team not pressing the ball as Italy keep it amongst their back four.

I think Serbia will attack and do all they can to win but also think Italy's defensive record must be respected. At best I see a goal each for both teams but don't fancy the both to score bet here at all.

Unders looks nailed on but is priced accordingly, instead I'll try a small play on the full time draw. Serbia will take a point so long a they hold off Slovenia next week and secure second in the group. The Italians just want to end the group unbeaten and with potentially no Rossi and Pazzini and Balotelli out this looks a good case for a draw result.

The Pick :

Serbia 1-1 Italia

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Serbia 40%- Draw 35%- Italia 25%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the Draw @ 3.45 at Pinnaclesports