Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The Baltimore Ravens (10-4) laid an egg in San Diego last week and have also likely missed out the chance to take the Number 1 seed in the AFC. The Ravens now need to win their last 2 games to ensure they win the AFC North and possibly receive a bye in the first Round of the Play Offs. First up they face the Cleveland Browns (4-10) who look like they are just playing out the season after losing their 7th game from the last 8.

Baltimore remain a much different prospect when playing at home than they do on the road as shown from the fact they have won all 7 here but are only 3-4 elsewhere. That does not bode well for their future in the Play Offs, especially if they don't win the AFC North and possibly have to play at Pittsburgh and New England in consecutive weeks.

You have to expect the Ravens, barring Cam Cameron having some sort of brain transplant, will try running the ball again after picking up 300 yards on the ground when the teams met a couple of weeks ago. Ray Rice and Ricky Williams had plenty of success that day and I expect they will have another big day in the office on Saturday.

That will leave Joe Flacco in a very good position of making throws from short and manageable situations. Flacco has really been up and down all season and was terrible in San Diego last week but I expect he will bounce back here, although Cleveland do have a strong Secondary. However, if Baltimore are running the ball as well as they were in the first meeting between the teams, Flacco may have more one on one coverage with his receivers and should be able to keep things ticking along.

Cleveland have not really progressed this season and will be starting Seneca Wallace at QB as Colt McCoy is yet to be cleared from his concussion suffered at the hands of Pittsburgh in Week 14. Wallace performed well against the Ravens last season, but he could have a tough time this time as his Offensive Line has struggled and comes up against a team that has over 3 sacks per game this season.

Wallace's biggest hope is that Peyton Hillis and the Browns Offense can establish the running game, although I expect the Ravens will look to bounce back from being gashed by Ryan Mathews last week. There are some suggestions that Cleveland will use the pass to try and open up the running lanes, but this figures to be as tough for them as it was when they met the Ravens the first time and when they faced Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago.

Head to Head

Baltimore have enjoyed plenty of success against Cleveland in recent games, winning the last 7 in the series and going 6-1 against the spread in those games.

That sole win against the spread for Cleveland came in their last visit to Baltimore, although they had lost their previous 2 games here against the spread.

The favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.

Baltimore are 7-6-1 against the spread this season, Cleveland are 5-7-2.

Other Interesting Trends

Baltimore are 49-24-2 against the spread in their last 75 games as the home favourite. However, they have lost their last 4 against the spread as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games following a straight up loss by double-digits.

Cleveland are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the underdog of 10.5 points or more.

They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against Divisional rivals.

Prediction

I am going to back the Baltimore Ravens to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I think it is going to be tough for the Cleveland Browns to score more than 13 points in this game against a Defense that has to be very angry after allowing 34 points last week.

Second, Baltimore have owned the Browns in recent games in the series and have been very strong at home.

Third, I think the Ravens will be able to create turnovers and win the field position battle in the game and that could allow them to pull away from the Browns.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Baltimore Ravens 27-10 Cleveland Browns

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Baltimore Ravens -13 Points @ 2.05