Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Monday 26 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The NFC South Divisional title could be wrapped up by the New Orleans Saints (11-3) on Monday Night Football as they battle their closest rivals, the Atlanta Falcons (9-5) in a venue where they have yet to be beaten this season.

The Saints also have bigger fish to fry as they continue on their quest to finish in the top 2 seeds in the NFC and earn a bye week during the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs. They will need a San Francisco loss along the way to take the Number 2 seed as the Number 1 is already beyond them thanks to a loss to Green Bay in Week 1. The Saints are a completely different proposition at home than on the road, so the locking up a Number 2 seed is very important to them.

This won't be easy against the Atlanta Falcons, a team that is almost secured of gaining a Wild Card spot (that could be wrapped up by the time they play on Monday), and one that will want to upset the apple cart against a Divisional rival.

And the Falcons will feel they can do so as they send their Offense up against a porous New Orleans Secondary that has been torched by a number of QBs this season. Matt Ryan may not be in the top 5 QBs in the League, but he is very effective and has a number of weapons that could do serious damage to the Saints. Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are capable of finding the soft spots in the Secondary, and I expect Ryan to have a big game.

The Offensive Line has not really performed to a very high level for Ryan, but any pass rush will effectively be negated by Michael Turner and the running game that should be able to have a big day against a Defense that allows 4.9 yards per carry. Atlanta were stuffed on a 4th and 1 in the first game between the teams this season, but they did run the ball well in that contest and I expect more of the same here. With Turner gaining yards on the ground, Matt Ryan should be able to exploit the Secondary from short and manageable situations.

On the other side of the ball, don't be surprised if Drew Brees breaks Dan Marino's record for passing yards in a season. Much like Green Bay, this Saints Offense is almost impossible to slow down, particularly at home, and Brees needs just 306 yards through the air to take the record. The Falcons Secondary has performed well in recent games, but they were torched by over 300 yards when these teams last met and I would expect more of the same.

The problem for the Defense is that Brees has so many weapons he can use, and he is not afraid of finding the open receiver rather than worrying about what name the player has on the back of their shirt. His Offensive Line has protected him for the most part this year, barring the game with St Louis, and he will have time to exploit this Secondary.

Atlanta have at least been solid against the run in their games, but even that might be a moot point as the Saints Offense are happy to use little screen passes and draws to move the chains and Darren Sproles is a big threat from out of the backfield. Much like Atlanta, I can see the Saints moving the chains effectively all day.

Head to Head

These teams know each other very well and it is no surprise to notice that the last 4 games have all been settled by no more than a field goal, a couple of those games requiring Overtime.

The road team has won the last 4 games in the series outright, although the Falcons have only accounted for one of those.

Atlanta are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games played between the teams in New Orleans.

New Orleans are 10-4 against the spread this season, Atlanta are 6-7-1.

Other Interesting Trends

New Orleans have won their last 6 games against the spread as the home favourite.

They are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.

Atlanta are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record at home.

Prediction

I am going to back the Atlanta Falcons to keep this close and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, they have played the New Orleans close so many times in recent games as they match up very well against them on both sides of the ball.

Second, the Saints have won 5 games in a row and teams that have done so are 24-42 against the spread in their next game.

Third, Atlanta are a dome team and will not be surprised by the Saints Offense here and that could allow them to keep this within a TD.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

New Orleans Saints 28-24 Atlanta Falcons

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Atlanta Falcons +6.5 Points @ 2.00